The US Diet Market Outlook To 2008: Future Profit Opportunities For Low Carb And Other Fast Growth Diets

Executive Summary 
The US Diet Market Landscape 
Drivers and Dynamics of The Diet Market 
The US Diet Consumer 
Competitive Analysis of Major Low Carb Brands 
Medical & Regulatory Environment 
The Future of Low Carb Dieting and Beyond 
Low Carb Diet Growth Strategies 

Chapter 1 The US Diet Market Landscape 
Summary 
Introduction 
Key findings
Dieting in the United States 
Overview 
Ever more homogeneous dietary habits and lifestyles 
Consumer weight profile 
Consumer health profile 
Metabolic syndrome 
Diabetes
The cyclical nature of dieting
Popular diets by type 
Low carb diets 
Low fat diets 
Other diets 
Diet support groups 
Individual Dieting 
The weight-loss industry 
Low carb dieting 
The original low carb diet 
The Atkins Advantage 
Consumer segmentations 
Consumer dietary habits by type 
Dedicated low carb lifestylers 
Flexible low carb lifestylers 
Consumer perception of the low carb lifestyle 
Conclusions 

Chapter 2 Drivers and Dynamics of The Diet Market 
Summary 
Introduction 
Key findings 
Market size 
Market segments 
Snacks 
Soft Drinks 
Dairy 
Bakery 
Confectionery 
Prepared meals 
Strengths and weaknesses of the low carb trend 
The strengths… 
Manufacturer survival 
Prevalence of flexible dieters 
Scientific findings do not refute low carb benefits 
A new alternative 
…and the weaknesses 
Market saturation 
Potential lack of scientific support 
Decrease in efficacy and/or success stories 
Conclusions 

Chapter 3 The US Diet Consumer 
Summary 
Introduction 
Key findings 
Consumer profile 
Segmentation by weight 
Motivated to get thin 
Consumer survey 
Dieting population profile 
Consumer behavior 
Willpower diminishes throughout the day 
Only Low Carb Dieters interested in carbohydrate intake 
True Low Carb Dieters are few and far between 
Understanding consumers’ food choices 
Understanding consumers’ drink choices 
Consumer drivers 
Personal relationships drive consumers’ diet choices 
Taste and price drive the consumer 
Taste is a barrier for attracting new low carb consumers 
Conclusions 

Chapter 4 Competitive Analysis of Major
Low Carb Brands 
Summary 
Introduction 
Key findings 
Manufacturer identification 
Low carb manufacturers 
Larger companies weigh in on the low carb trend 
Competition among low carb manufacturers 
Changing the landscape of the low carb market 
Major CPGs manufacturers entering the market: a lesson from
organics 
Low carb new product development: diversifying products 82
Low carb as a scapegoat 
Case Study: Atkins Nutritionals 
A history of Atkins Nutritionals 
Atkins food and drink products 
Partnerships and the pyramid 
The future for Atkins 
Case Study: Keto Foods 
Reformulating favorite foods 
Research and development are key business areas 
Future growth 
Industry survey 
The low carb market is an opportunity for growth 
Manufacturers’ forecasts for low carb diets 
Comparison to the low fat trend 
Future market drivers 
Endorsements and brand awareness 
Drivers contributing to product success 
The low carb marketplace 
Price premiums are high 
Price premiums as a barrier to market growth 
Low carb ingredients and product formulation 
Marketing a low carb product 
Conclusions 

Chapter 5 Medical & Regulatory
Environment 
Summary 
Introduction 
Key findings 
The science behind dieting 
The low fat and low carb theories 
The low fat theory 
The low carb theory 
The low fat and low carb trends 
The low fat trend 
The low carb trend 
The glycemic index 
Low carbohydrate studies 
Short-term studies 
Long term studies 
Government
The Food Guide Pyramid 
Atkins and the Food Pyramid 
The FDA and nutrition labels 
Low Carb Claims and Nutrition Labels 
Regulating organics 
Conclusions 

Chapter 6 The Future of Low Carb Dieting
and Beyond 
Summary 
Introduction 
Key findings 
Rapid growth of low carb bakery, snacks and prepared meals 
The rapid growth of the bakery category 
Guilt-free snacking 
Low carb frozen meals will appeal to busy consumers 
Increased market consolidation 
Distribution and shelf space 
Market consolidation 
The importance of “Buy-in” of Healthful Eaters and healthcare referrals 
Internalizing the low carb message
Medical factors 
The next “big thing” - five years away 
Industry and consumer components necessary for significant trends 
Increased media coverage of low carb weight loss 
High levels of controversy 
A charismatic spokesman 
Development of ingredients and improved product taste 
A mature food and beverage industry 
The “coolness” factor 
The promise of a quick fix 
Scientific logic that makes sense to the layman 

Chapter 7 Low Carb Diet Growth Strategies 
Summary 
Introduction 
Key findings 
Improve the taste, competitiveness and appeal 
Product formulation and taste 
Reducing price premiums 
Target evening eating occasions 
Brand building and preparation for strategic alliances and acquisitions 
Small, niche low carb companies 
Large CPG manufacturers 
Education through marketing partnerships 
Create wider appeal through marketing campaigns 
Partner with healthcare professionals 
Develop community outreach programs 
Conclusions 

List of Figures
Figure 3.1: US population by BMI category, by gender, %, 2002-2007 
Figure 3.2: Ranked meal occasion by ease of diet adherence, by consumer group, % (where 1 =
easiest and 6 = hardest) 
Figure 3.3: Consumption changes made when attempting weight loss/maintenance, by consumer
group, % respondents who answered “always” 
Figure 3.4: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by food category, %
respondents 
Figure 3.5: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by drinks category, %
respondents 
Figure 4.6: Low carb beer and malternative entrants, 2004 
Figure 4.7: “Mid-carb” soda entrants, 2004 
Figure 4.8: Reduced-carb orange juices, by brand, 2004 
Figure 4.9: Atkins food product examples, 2004 
Figure 4.10: Atkins-certified co-venture examples, 2004 
Figure 4.11: Keto food product examples, 2004 
Figure 4.12: Industry perception of low carb trend, by importance, % respondents 
Figure 4.13: Manufacturer opinion of low fat and low carb consumers and purchases now and in
five years, % respondents 
Figure 4.14: Industry perceptions of low carb consumer drivers, by importance, % respondents 
Figure 5.15: Glycemic index certification symbol 
Figure 5.16: Proposed changes to nutrition labels, 2004 
Figure 6.17: Market size, by category, $bn, 2003-2008 
Figure 6.18: USDA Food Guide Pyramid, 2003 
Figure 6.19: Atkins Food Guide Pyramid, 2004 
Figure 6.20: Consumer groups and product attributes, by degrees of “coolness” 

List of Tables
Table 1.1: Prevalence of overweight and obesity, 2002-2007 
Table 1.2: Prevalence of diabetes, by type, (million), 2003-2009 
Table 1.3: Risk factors associated with being overweight and obese 
Table 1.4: Breakdown of the weight-loss industry, by category 
Table 1.5: Consumer segmentation, by dieting/lifestyle type 
Table 1.6: Consumer perception of the low carb diet, by “agree completely” and “agree
somewhat,” by consumer group (% respondents) 
Table 2.7: U.S. low carb food and beverage market value, by category, ($m), 1998-2008 
Table 2.8: Growth of low carb snacks market, ($m), 1998-2008 
Table 2.9: Low carb product introductions, snacks category 
Table 2.10: Growth of low carb soft drinks market, ($m), 1998-2008 
Table 2.11: Growth of low carb dairy market, ($m), 1998-2008 
Table 2.12: Low carb product introductions, dairy category 
Table 2.13: Growth of low carb bakery market, ($m), 1998-2008 
Table 2.14: Low carb product introductions, bakery category 
Table 2.15: Growth of low carb confectionery market, ($m), 1998-2008 
Table 2.16: Low carb product introductions, confectionery category 
Table 2.17: Growth of low carb prepared meals market, ($m), 1998-2008 
Table 2.18: Low carb product introductions, prepared meals category 
Table 3.19: Main reason for dieting, by gender, % respondents 
Table 3.20: Consumer groups, by age, % respondents 
Table 3.21: Consumption changes made when attempting weight loss/maintenance, by consumer
group, % respondents who answered “always” 
Table 3.22: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by food category, %
respondents 
Table 3.23: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by drinks category, %
respondents 
Table 3.24: Ranked influencing factors in dieting choice, by consumer group, (where 1 = strongest
and 8 = weakest)
Table 3.25: Ranked purchasing priorities, by consumer group (where 1 = strongest and 10 =
weakest) 
Table 4.26: Low carb companies and respective product categories, 2003 
Table 4.27: Multinational companies and respective new low carb product introductions, through
June 2004 
Table 4.28: New product introductions, #, 1999-2003 82
Table 4.29: Manufacturer opinion of low fat and low carb consumers and purchases now and in
five years, % respondents 
Table 4.30: Industry perceptions of low carb consumer drivers, by importance, % respondents 
Table 4.31: Ranking of manufacturer vs. consumer preferences 
Table 4.32: Low carb price premium examples, 2004 
Table 4.33: Sweetener substitute glossary 
Table 5.34: Average reduction in weight and heart disease, and dropout rate, by specific diet, %
Table 5.35: Pounds lost, by time on diet, low carb vs. conventional dieting, 2003 
Table 5.36: FDA guidelines