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Open Mobile

Boschulte Schnee Group LLC
July 10, 2008
160 Pages - SKU: BSL1819449

Abstract Table of Contents Search inside this report Related Reports

Unthinkable even a year ago - Open Mobile is now inevitable!

Opening mobile networks, devices, platforms and software will completely remake the business and the value chain of Mobile.

Open Mobile will vitally affect the core interests of every key party involved in wireless and the mobile Internet.

“OPEN MOBILE” is the first comprehensive, expert study of this dramatic, growing development. It identifies 3 Gates that must be opened to achieve Open Mobile and explains how to open each. The study debunks Carrier Myths about “Commoditization” and “Dumb Pipes.” It contains a proprietary model of the New Open Mobile Carrier Business, with projections of revenues, expenses and profitability. It dissects the battle of emerging Mobile Internet Ecosystems - and analyzes whether Google, Nokia, RIM and others, can catch the leader, Apple.

“OPEN MOBILE” deals with all of the issues related to this industry-changing development: a) the outlook for open source OSs such as LiMo and Android’s approaches to Linux; b) what Microsoft must do to have a robust future in mobile; c) how the mobile device business may be overhauled in the course of this fight; d) how to assure open opportunities for apps and content providers; e) where the surprising opportunities are for mobile Internet apps growth; and f) how big retailers will address the new world of Open Mobile. It also includes extensive analysis of regulatory Open Mobile issues.

As initial resistance to Open Mobile turns into a full-scale embrace, the value chain of the mobile universe will be completely re-configured. From basic service to data plans, to the exploding world of new mobile devices, to mobile advertising, to mobile content and applications - a new paradigm is about to be defined.

Summary: Open Mobile's Inevitability; A New Carrier Business Model; The 3 Gates To Open Mobile; "Smart Transport" vs. "Dumb Pipe"; Getting To Open Mobile - Carrier Progression; Getting To Open Mobile - OSs and Devices; Mobile Internet Ecosystems vs. Open Mobile: Apple, Nokia, RIM, Google; The Mobile Future of the Internet
Chapter 1 - Open Mobile's Inevitability: Open Mobile's Inevitability; Understanding Open Mobile; Mobile Internet vs. Fixed Internet; Defining Open Mobile; Three Gates to Open Mobile; Can We Ever Get To The Open Mobile Vision?; Multiple Pathways To Open Mobile; The Mobile Future Of The Internet
Chapter 2 - Market Dynamics and Open Mobile: Drivers and Players
Chapter 3 - Carriers - Open Mobile A Defining Issue: Background - Carrier Issues The Key; Carrier Confusion and Ambivalence About Data and the Internet - Wireline Experience; The Lesson For Wireless; Carrier Issue - Traffic Mix (The Three Bears Analogy); Verizon's Open Development Initiative (ODI); VZW's ODI - How Open?; ODI - Operational Approach; Table of Contents OPEN MOBILE The role of ZigBee (M2M); Pricing For ODI; Conclusions On ODI; Verizon And LiMo; The GSM Approach - SIM; Other Approaches: Carrier As Content/Apps Gateway - Example Japan; Vodafone live!; Clearwire/Sprint - Xohm; Reliance/TATA/OMH: R-UIM
Chapter 4 - Regulation's Key Role In Open Mobile: Skype Petition Kicks Off The Issue of Open Mobile; Skype's Petition: Open Mobile and "Carterfone"; How Skype Lost The Battle ---- WON the WAR; 700 MHz Auction -FCC's Key Findings On Open Mobile; FCC's Position - the C Block; 700 MHz Auction Results and Aftermath; Auction Aftermath: Google vs. Verizon - Google Has 2nd Thoughts; The Regulatory Time Bomb Of Open Mobile
Chapter 5 - The New Open Mobile Carrier Business Model: The Future of Mobile Internet and Data; The Carrier Business Case For Open Mobile; The New Open Mobile Carrier Business Model; Open Mobile Model - Subscriber Assumptions; Open Mobile Model - Service Offering Assumptions; Open Mobile Model - Pricing Assumptions; Open Mobile Model - Usage Assumptions; Open Mobile Model - Traffic Assumptions; Open Mobile Model - Revenue Assumptions; Open Mobile Model - Investment Assumptions; Open Mobile Model - Expense Assumptions; Open Mobile Model - Profit and Loss; Open Mobile Model - Margins and Metrics; Open Mobile Model - Analysis: Compared to Verizon Wireless; Open Mobile Model - Conclusions; "Smart Transport" vs. "Dumb Pipe"
Chapter 6 - Handset and Operating System Issues: Overview Of Mobile Device Software; Opening Gate 2 - Operating Systems; The Linux Movement; Android, LiMo, LiPS - Overlap vs. Competition; Mobile Device OSs - Basic Comparisons; What About Java?; Microsoft - Open?; Opening Gate 3 - Handsets; Handset Provider Attitudes to Open Mobile - Nokia's New Strategy; Apple's Strategy; RIM and Nokia - Chasing Apple; RIM and Nokia - Need For New Strategies
Chapter 7 - Developer, Applications and Content Provider Issues: Developers, Apps and Content Providers -Background; Recent Signs Of Progress For Developers; Broadband and Development Of Mobile Applications; Search, Advertising and LBS; Search and Open Mobile; Content, Entertainment, Video; Mobile Commerce; Telemetry, Security, Other Apps; Applications Outlook; Developers and Android; Developers and LiMo; Apple's Initiatives - Ecosystems and Apps
Chapter 8 - Other Players: Infrastructure, Retail: Infrastructure Companies - Mixed Attitudes To Open; Retailers - The Open Mobile Bonanza
Chapter 9 - Making Money On Open Mobile: Mobile Internet - The Key; The Carrier Cycle - Four Stage Cycle (Opening Gate 1); OS Outlook (Android and Opening Gate 2); Outlook For Device-Driven Ecosystems (Opening Gate 3); Regulatory Outlook
Charts, Figures, Tables: Figure E-1. 3 Gates To Open Mobile - Carrier Gate The Key Issue; Table E-1. 4 Stage Carrier Progression To Open Mobile; Table E-2. Apple, Nokia, Google, RIM - Ecosystems Compared; Table 1-1. Mobile vs. Fixed Internet Characteristics; Figure 1-1. Schematic Of "Gates" In Mobile System; Table 1-2. Number of Choices By Category; Table 1-3. Mobile Internet Ecosystem Approaches, By Gate Type; Chart 1-1. Mobile Users & Internet Users, 1996-2007; Table 2-1. Worldwide Cellphones, Fixed Line Phones, PC; Chart 2- 1. Cellphones per POP & Telephone Lines per POP, 10 Regions Compared; Table 2-2. Broadband Wired vs. Wireless Capabilities, Downlink Speeds 2007 & 2008-2010; Table 2-3. Broadband Wireless Evolution; Table 2-4. Cellphone Unit Sales 2007, By Type; Table 2-5. Mobile Data Value Chain - Objectives/Issues; Table 2-6. Key Player Positioning - Gate 1 RAN (Carrier); Table 2-7. Key Player Positioning - Gate 2 OS; Table 2-8. Key Player Positioning - Gate 3 Device; Table 2-9. Google - Telecom Initiatives; Table 3-1. Wireless vs. Wireline Revenue Growth, U.S. 1999-2007; Table 3-2. Ecommerce, Online Advertising Revenue, U.S. - 2007; Table 3-3. Carrier Traffic Mix Issue (Three Bears Analogy); Table 3-4. Mobile Data Revenue, By Category, U.S., 2007; Table 3-5. US Mobile Penetration; Table 3-6. Europe Mobile Penetration; Table 3-7. U.S. Wireless Subscriber Growth; Chart 3-1. Mobile Wireless % Growth -Entering Zone of Concern; Table 3-8. Verizon ODI Business Model, By Activity; Table 3-9. Projected ODI Cost Savings; Figure 3-1. i-mode Ecosystem; Table 3-10. Vodafone Revenue Breakdown FYs Ending 3/31; Table 4-1. Skype Petition - Cellular Industry Arguments,; Table 4-2. Google's 4 Auction Conditions; Table 4-3. VZ & T Dominate 700 MHz Auction; Table 4-4. VZ & T - Summary 700 MHz Holdings; Table 4-5. Verizon & AT&T - 700 MHz Holdings By Type; Table of Contents OPEN MOBILE Charts, Figures, Tables; Diagram 5-1. Future Progression of Data/Internet Services 2007-2012+; Diagram 5-2. Changing Demand - Impact On Wireless Networks; Table 5-1. Open Carrier vs. Closed Carrier - Economics, By Category; Table 5-2. Current Large Carrier Economics; Table 5-3. Open Mobile Model - Service Tiers; Table 5-4. Open Mobile Model - Pricing, By Tier; Table 5-5. Open Mobile Model - Usage Assumptions, By Tier; Table 5-6. Open Mobile Model - Traffic Assumptions, By Tier; Table 5-7. Open Mobile Model - Revenue, By Tier; Table 5-8. Open Mobile Model - Investment, By Category; Table 5-9. Open Mobile Model - COS Expenses, By Category; Table 5-10. Open Mobile Model - SGA Expenses, % Assumptions; Table 5-11. Open Mobile Model - Profit & Loss, 3 Cases; Table 5-12. Open Mobile Model - Margin Analysis, 3 Cases; Table 5-13. Open Mobile Model - Metrics Analysis, 3 Cases; Table 5-14. Open Mobile Model - Metrics vs. Verizon Wireless; Table 5-15. Open Mobile Model, Medium Case - Metrics vs. Verizon Wireless; Diagram 6-1. Schematic of Mobile Handsets, Apps, Middleware, OS; Diagram 6-2. Von Neuman Model; Table 6-1. Android, LiMo, LiPS Members; Table 6-2. Comparison of Leading Mobile OSs; Table 6-3. OS-CPU Relationships; Table 6-4. Apps Developer Platform Choices, 2Q 2008; Table 6-5. Apps Developer OS Choices, 2Q 2008; Table 6-6. Recently Developed OSs; Table 6-7. Top 2 OS Players - By Market Segment, 2008 vs. 2012; Figure 6-1. Pyramid Of OS Software Use, By Segment & Company - 2012; Table 6-8. The Overlooked Importance of CPU Advances 2007-2012; Table 6-9. Smartphone Worldwide OS - % market share; Table 6-10. Global and U.S. Handset Market Shares; Table 6-11. Nokia Ovi - Features and Description; Table 6-12. Apple Strategy Paradigm; Table 6-13. RIM and Nokia - Smartphones Chasing Apple; Chart 6-1. iPhone Sales Forecast 2008; Table 6-14. i-Phone Carriers; Table 7-1. Mobile Broadband Applications - Issues/Outlook; Table 7-2. Mobile Internet Search Provider Rankings 2008; Table 7-3. Mobile Search - 3 Alternative Paths; Table 7-4. Android - Software Members; Diagram 7-1. LiMo Schematic; Table 7-5. LiMo - Software Members; Table 8-1. Cellular Buyer survery - Non-Voice Preferences; Table 9-1. 4-Stage Carrier Progression To Open Mobile

Open Mobile

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