Countries covered: China
China has shaken off macro-economy depression and set foot on a fast growing road since 2003. In the meantime, under the conditions of shortage of supply central government has adopted a set of agriculture-oriented policies in order to stimulate the recovery of grain production, for example, agricultural subsidy expenditure, agricultural tax abolishment, etc.
Therefore, fertilizer production, demand and investment in China witnessed a continuous growth influenced with the two favorable factors. However, under the conditions of shortage of domestic and international energy sources plus surging prices of mineral resources, a set of macro-adjustment policies are adopted to control a highly liquid currency circulation and prevent inflation; at the same time, price and revenue policies are carried out to restrain the excessive consumption of energy sources and mineral resources and large amount of investment into high energy consumption industries.
Negative effects in fertilizer industry have increased with the implementation of macro-economy policies, and they showed more distinctive entered 2006-2007 as followed: In 2007, domestic supply and demand are blooming in fertilizer market with strong demand worldwide. However, fertilizer material cost and industrial powder generally marked up, suppressing the rise of fertilizer production cost and price, plus export limit, so profit margin in fertilizer industry decreased dramatically. From the view of new policies adopted by central government and policy guide in the Central Economy Working Conference in November and December, 2007, policies will focus on the following points next year. It will deepen the reform of fiscal revenue, price and investment system to promote the change of economy development; macro-adjustment will be carried out on the principle of quantity control, price stabilization, structure adjustment and balance promotion; the most important task of macro-adjustment is to prevent excessive economy growth and avoid dramatic price inflation; forceful measures will be adopted to restrain the excessive price growth and enhance the production of basic necessities, such as grains, edible vegetable oil, meat products, etc; currency polices will play a more important role in macro-economy to restrain total amount and speed of currency credit; stable fiscal policies and tight currency polices will be implemented. Fertilizer industry in 2008 will be restrained by cost growth and price limit under the influence of the mentioned macro policies. In the meantime, the implementation time of fertilizer production preferential policy abolishment brought forward in 2006 is still not settled, further deepening the uncertainty of Chinese fertilizer market.
Therefore, it is more important to estimate and grasp precisely the trend of domestic fertilizer production and market. Combined with national economy development and policy reform, BOABC will research deeply in 2008 Chinese fertilizer market trend on the basis of an overall analysis and review in Chinese fertilizer market policies and trend in 2007 as to make a specific estimate in Chinese future fertilizer market, which will be a strategic reference for insiders domestically and internationally focusing on fertilizer market in China.
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- Chapter One: Macro-Economy & Fertilizer Industry’s Development
- 1.1 China’s economy status
- 1.1.1 Review and outlook of China’s economy 2007-2008
- 1.1.1.1 Fulfillment of Objectives of the 2001-2005 Plan
- 1.1.2 Economic status during the 11th Five Year Plan
- Table1.1, Fulfillment of Objectives Set for 2006-2007
- 1.1.3 Fertilizer production during the 11th Five Year Plan
- Table1.2, Fulfillment of Fertilizer Objectives Set for 2006-2007
- 1.1.4 Agricultural production during the 11th Five Year Plan
- Table1.3, Fulfillment of Major Farm Product Supply Objectives Set in 2006-2007
- 1.2 Impact of agricultural related taxes, subsidies on supply and demand of fertilizer industry
- 1.2.1 Farming policy
- 1.2.2 Impact of grain direct subsidy and farm input subsidy on supply and demand
- 1.2.3 Impact of import and export tariffs on fertilizer production
- 1.3 Impact of change in regulatory of natural resources on fertilizer production
- 1.3.1 Impact of policy for coal production
- 1.3.2 Impact of policy for natural gas on fertilizer industry
- 1.3.3 Impact of policy for mineral resources on fertilizer industry
- 1.4 Impact of intensified policy for environmental protection on fertilizer industry
- 1.5 Impact of policy for restricting overheated investment and overflowed money liquidity
- 1.6 Impact of the reform on investment, production and distribution
- 1.7 Current investment status in China’s fertilizer industry
- 1.7.1 Investment in N fertilizer
- 1.7.2 Investment in P fertilizer
- 1.7.3 Investment in K fertilizer
- 1.8 Analysis on competence by variety
- 1.8.1 Analysis on competence of N fertilizer
- 1.8.2 Analysis on competence of P fertilizer
- 1.8.3 Analysis on competence of K fertilizer
- 1.9 Consolidation of fertilizer industry
- 1.10 Fertilizer distribution system
- 1.10.1 Change in distribution system
- 1.10.2 Farm input chain store
- 1.10.3 Domestic sales network of Sinochem Fertilizer
- 1.10.4 Domestic sales network of Sinoagri
- 1.10.5 Postal logistics service
- 1.10.6 Distribution of foreign enterprises
- Chapter Two: Review & Outlook of Fertilizer Market in 2007-2008
- 2.1 Market Review for 2007
- 2.1.1 Analysis on market prosperity
- Table2.1, Economic Indicators of Fertilizer Industry in 2007
- Figure2.1, Profit margin of chemical fertilizer manufacture
- 2.1.2 Market trend
- 2.1.3 Impact of international market
- Figure2.2, International Fertilizer Prices
- 2.1.4 Analysis on fertilizer demand for grain production
- Figure2.3, Returns from Major Crops in China
- Figure2.4, Grain/Fertilizer Price Ratio
- 2.1.5 Fertilizer production
- Figure2.5, Monthly Total Fertilizer Production
- 2.1.6 Imports and exports
- 2.1.7 Fertilizer demand
- 2.1.8 Price trend
- Figure2.6, The Producer’s Prices of Fertilizers, 2003-2006
- Figure2.7, The Retail Prices of Fertilizers, 1997-2006
- 2.2 Outlook in 2008
- 2.2.1 Market prospect
- 2.2.2 Import quotas allocation
- Table2.2, Preferential Tariff Rate Fertilizer Import Quotas for 2006
- 2.2.3 Requirements for applying import quotas in 2008
- 2.2.4 Authorized fertilizer importers in 2008
- 2.2.5 Changes in fertilizer import and export tariffs
- 2.2.6 Characteristics of industry policy
- 2.2.7 Estimates of fertilizer production in 2007
- 2.2.8 Estimates of fertilizer imports and exports in 2008
- 2.2.9 Estimates of fertilizer consumption in 2008
- Chapter Three: Review & Outlook of Nitrogen Market in 2007-2008
- 3.1 Nitrogen fertilizer market review in 2007
- 3.1.1 Analysis on market prosperity
- Table3.1, Economic Indicators of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry in 2007
- Figure3.1, The Five-Month Moving Profit Ratio of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry
- 3.1.2 Cost and profit for N fertilizer production
- Table3.2, Production Cost of Urea
- 3.1.3 N fertilizer market analysis
- 3.1.4 N fertilizer production
- Figure3.2, Monthly Nitrogen Fertilizer Production
- Figure3.3, Proportion Of Nitrogen Fertilizer Production, 2007
- Figure3.4, Proportion Of Nitrogen Fertilizer Production, 2006
- 3.1.5 N fertilizer imports and exports
- Figure3.5, Monthly Urea Exports
- 3.1.6 N fertilizer consumption
- 3.1.7 Urea market review in 2007
- 3.1.7.1 Market analysis
- 3.1.7.2 Urea production
- Figure3.6, Monthly Urea Production
- 3.1.7.3 Urea consumption
- 3.1.7.4 Urea market trend
- Figure3.7, China Urea Monthly Retail Prices
- 3.1.8 ABC market in 2007
- 3.1.8.1 ABC production
- 3.1.8.2 ABC consumption
- 3.1.8.3 ABC price trend
- Figure3.8, China ABC Monthly Retail Prices
- 3.2 Outlook of N fertilizer in 2008
- 3.2.1 Potential in capacity boom
- 3.2.2 Market prospect for N fertilizer in 2008
- 3.2.3 Estimates of urea market trend in 2008
- 3.2.4 Production trend in N fertilizer
- 3.2.5 Import and export of N fertilizer
- 3.2.6 Estimates of N fertilizer consumption
- Chapter Four: Review and Outlook of Phosphate Fertilizer Market 2007-2008
- 4.1 Phosphate fertilizer market review in 2007
- 4.1.1 Analysis on market prosperity
- Table4.1, Operation Performance of the Phosphate Fertilizer Industry in 2005
- Figure4.1, The Five-Month Moving Profit Ratio of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry
- 4.1.2 Cost and profit for P fertilizer production 2007
- Table4.2, Production Cost of SSP
- 4.1.3 P fertilizer market analysis
- 4.1.3 P fertilizer production
- Figure4.2, Monthly Phosphate Fertilizer Production
- Figure4.3, Proportion Of Phosphate Fertilizer Production, 2007
- Figure4.4, Proportion Of Phosphate Fertilizer Production, 2006
- 4.1.4 P fertilizer imports
- 4.1.5 P fertilizer consumption
- 4.1.6 Price trend
- Figure4.5, China SSP Monthly Retail Prices
- 4.2 Outlook of phosphate fertilizer in 2008
- 4.2.1 Estimates of market prospect
- 4.2.2 Estimates of production
- 4.2.3 Estimates of imports and exports
- 4.2.4 Estimates of consumption
- Chapter Five: Review and Outlook of Potassium Fertilizer Market 2007-2008
- 5.1.1 Analysis on market prosperity
- Table5.1, Operation Performance of the Potash Fertilizer Industry in 2006
- Figure5.1, The Five-Month Moving Profit Ratio of Potash Industry
- 5.1.2 Cost and profit for K fertilizer production
- 5.1.3 Production of Salt Lake Potash Co Ltd
- 5.1.4 Production of Luobupo Potash Co Ltd
- 5.1.5 China’s investment in Laos and Thailand
- 5.1.6 K fertilizer market analysis
- 5.1.7 K fertilizer production
- Figure5.2, Monthly Potassium Fertilizer Production
- 5.1.8 K fertilizer imports
- Figure5.3, Monthly MOP Imports
- Figure5.4, Monthly SOP Imports
- 5.1.9 K fertilizer consumption
- 5.1.10 Price trends
- Figure5.5, China MOP Monthly Retail Prices
- Figure5.6, SOP Monthly Retail Prices
- Figure5.7, China Imported MOP(red) Prices At Ports
- Figure5.8, China Imported MOP(white) Prices At Ports
- 5.2 Output of Potassium Fertilizer Market in 2008
- 5.2.1 Potential in K fertilizer capacity boom
- 5.2.2 Estimates of K fertilizer market trends in 2008
- 5.2.3 Estimates of K fertilizer production in 2008
- 5.2.4 Estimates of K fertilizer imports in 2008
- 5.2.4 Estimates of K fertilizer consumption in 2008
- Chapter Six: Review and Outlook of Compound Fertilizer Market 2007-2008
- 6.1 Compound fertilizer market review in 2007
- 6.1.1 Analysis on market prosperity
- Table6.1, Operation Performance of Compound Fertilizer Industry in 2006
- Figure6.1, The Five-Month Moving Profit Ratio of Compound Fertilizer Industry
- 6.1.2 Cost and profit for compound fertilizer production
- Table6.2, Production Cost of Compound Fertilizer
- 6.1.3 Compound fertilizer market analysis
- 6.1.4 Compound fertilizer production
- Figure6.2, Monthly DAP Production
- 6.1.5 Compound fertilizer imports and exports
- Figure6.3, Monthly DAP Imports
- Figure6.4, Monthly DAP Exports
- Figure6.5, Monthly MAP Exports
- Figure6.6, Monthly Complex Fertilizer (NPK) Imports
- Figure6.7, Monthly Complex Fertilizer (NPK) Exports
- 6.1.6 Compound fertilizer consumption
- 6.1.7 Price trends for NPK and DAP
- Figure6.8, China DAP Monthly Retail Prices
- Figure6.9, China NPK Monthly Retail Prices
- Figure6.10, China Imports DAP Prices at Ports
- Figure6.11, China Imported NPK Prices at Ports
- 6.2 Estimates of compound fertilizer market trends in 2008
- 6.2.1 Potential in compound fertilizer capacity boom
- 6.2.2 Estimates of compound fertilizer market trends in 2008
- 6.2.3 Estimates of compound fertilizer production in 2008
- 6.2.4 Estimates of compound fertilizer imports and exports in 2008
- 6.2.4.1 Estimates of DAP imports and exports
- 6.2.4.2 Estimates of NPK imports and exports
- 6.2.5 Estimates of compound fertilizer consumption in 2008
- Chapter Seven: Review and Outlook of Related Industries 2007-2008
- 7.1 Review and outlook of synthetic ammonia market 2007-2008
- 7.1.1 Prospect of synthetic ammonia imports
- 7.1.2 Production of synthetic Ammonia in 2007
- Figure7.1, Monthly Ammonium Production
- 7.1.3 Imports and exports of synthetic ammonia in 2007
- 7.1.4 Price trends in 2007
- 7.1.5 Estimates of synthetic ammonia production in 2008
- 7.1.6 Estimates of imports and exports of synthetic ammonia in 2008
- 7.2 Review and outlook of phosphorite market 2007-2008
- 7.2.1 Prospect of imports and exports of phosphorite
- 7.2.2 Phosphorite production in 2007
- Figure7.2, Monthly Phosphorus Produnction
- 7.2.3 Phosphorite imports and exports in 2007
- 7.2.4 Estimates of phosphorite production in 2008
- 7.2.5 Estimates of imports and exports of phosphorite in 2008
- 7.3 Review and outlook of sulfuric acid market 2007-2008
- 7.3.1 Sulfuric acid production in 2007
- Figure7.3, Monthly Sulphric Acid Production
- 7.3.2 Sulfur production in 2007
- 7.3.3 Sulphide iron production in 2007
- 7.3.4 Sulfur imports in 2007
- 7.3.5 Sulfuric imports in 2007
- 7.3.6 Prices trends of sulfur, sulfuric acid and sulphide iron in 2007
- 7.3.7 Estimate of sulfuric acid production in 2008
- 7.3.8 Estimate of sulfur production in 2008
- 7.3.9 Estimate of sulphide iron production in 2008
- 7.3.10 Estimate of sulfur imports in 2008
- 7.3.11 Estimate of sulfuric acid imports in 2008
- 7.4 Review and outlook of phosphoric acid market 2007-2008
- 7.4.1 Phosphoric acid production in 2007
- 7.4.2 Phosphoric acid imports and exports in 2007
- 7.4.3 Estimate of phosphoric acid production in 2008
- 7.4.4 Estimates of imports and exports of phosphoric acid in 2008
- APPENDIX Table
- Chemical Fertilizer
- Table1, Chemical Fertilizer Balance Sheet, 2003-2008
- Table2, Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products, 2003-2007
- Table3, Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products, 2003-2007
- Table4, Chemical Fertilizer Production, 2003-2007
- Table5, Chemical Fertilizer Consumption, 2003-2007
- N-Fertilizer
- Table6, N-Fertilizer Balance Sheet, 2003-2008
- Table7, Balance Sheet of Urea in China, 2003-2008
- Table8, N-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2003-2007
- Table9, N-Fertilizer Production, 2003-2007
- Table10, N-Fertilizer Consumption, 2003-2007
- Table11, China’s Urea Imports by Country Original, 2003-2007
- Table12, China’s Urea Exports by Destination Country, 2003-2007
- Table13, Urea Imports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table14, China’s Urea Exports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table15, China’s Urea Imports by Provinces, 2003-2007
- Table16, China’s Urea Exports by Provinces, 2003-2007
- P-Fertilizer
- Table17, P-Fertilizers Balance Sheet, 2003-2008
- Table18, P-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2003-2007
- Table19, P-Fertilizer Production, 2003-2007
- Table20, P-Fertilizer Consumption, 2003-2007
- K-Fertilizer
- Table21, K-Fertilizers Balance Sheet, 2003-2008
- Table22, K-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2003-2007
- Table23, K-Fertilizer Production, 2003-2007
- Table24, K-Fertilizer Consumption, 2003-2007
- Table25, China’s MOP Imports by Country Original, 2003-2007
- Table26, China’s MOP Exports by Destination Country, 2003-2007
- Table27, MOP Imports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table28, China’s MOP Exports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table29, MOP Imports by Provinces, 2003-2007
- Table30, China’s SOP Imports by Country Original, 2003-2007
- Table31, China’s SOP Exports by Destination Country, 2003-2007
- Table32, SOP Imports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table33, China’s SOP Exports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table34, SOP Imports by Provinces, 2003-2007
- Compound Fertilizer
- Table35, Balance Sheet of Compound Fertilizer in China, 2003-2008
- Table36, Balance Sheet of DAP in China, 2003-2008
- Table37, Balance Sheet of NPK in China, 2003-2008
- Table38, Compound Fertilizer Production, 2003-2007
- Table39, Compound Fertilizer Consumption, 2003-2007
- Table40, China’s NPK Imports by Country Original, 2003-2007
- Table41, China’s NPK Exports by Destination Country, 2003-2007
- Table42, NPK Imports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table43, China’s NPK Exports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table44, NPK Imports by Provinces, 2003-2007
- Table45, China’s DAP Imports by Country Original, 2003-2007
- Table46, China’s DAP Exports by Country Destination, 2003-2007
- Table47, DAP Imports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table48, China’s DAP Exports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table49, DAP Imports by Province, 2003-2007
- Chemical Fertilizer Related Products
- Table50, China’s Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2003-2007
- Table51, China’s Production by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2003-2007
- Table52, China’s Sulfur Import by Country Original, 2003-2007
- Table53, China’s Sulfur Import by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table54, China’s Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2003-2007
- Table55, China Phosphorite Exports by Destination Country, 2003-2007
- Table56, China Phosphorite Exports by Customs, 2003-2007
- APPENDIX Chronicles of Chemical Fertilizer Market in 2007
- Policy
- Investment
- Investment in nitrogen fertilizer
- Investment in potash fertilizer
- Investment in Phosphate and NPK fertilizers
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