UK Express Parcels: Market insight report


January 1, 2012
50 Pages - SKU: APMI3865326
License type:
Countries covered: United Kingdom

What does the report contain?

In this report we review the UK parcels market encompassing both the business-to-business and business-to-consumer segments. We quantify the market size, historical growth rates, segmentation patterns and levels of industry profitability while reviewing key factors behind these figures. We also carry out an in-depth analysis of the relevant drivers of industry growth – in particular the macroeconomic environment and home shopping – setting out historical trends and available forecasts. Our forecast for industry growth by segment is based in this analysis of historical trends and our understanding of growth drivers. While many reports on the industry contain data and description, a critical objective for us in writing this report has been to supplement this with our insights and conclusions

Why did we write this report?

The UK parcels industry has continued to evolve dynamically with Continued overall growth. Macro factors such as the trend growth of home shopping and the cyclical impact of the economy on volumes continuing to provide challenges and opportunities. Some continued consolidation of the market through acquisition. Ongoing refinement of operating models to enable evolving customer needs to be served profitably. We believe that, in order for those involved in the market to make the best decisions in this complex and changing environment, they need to have access to the best information. The aim of this report is to provide this. It is intended for parcels carriers themselves, users of their services, partners, investors, banks, analysts, consultants and other parties with interests in the sector.

What are the sources and methodology? This report is based on Financial analysis of the accounts of companies in the industry Interviews with senior-level contacts in the market In-depth analysis of the macroeconomic environment and relevant market drivers Our own experience of advising both companies and investors in the express parcels industry. Information from these sources has been synthesised and presented clearly and concisely with extensive use of charts and tables to illuminate points and support conclusions


Introduction
About this report
Executive summary
About Apex Insight
Contents
List of charts and tables
Parcels market
Background
Market size and growth
Volume and value trends
Adjacent markets and SIC data
Market drivers
Explanation of market drivers
GDP
Inflation
Population
GDP: inflation, population and real output per head
Household disposable income and retail sales
Internet shopping value
Household penetration
Internet shopping: international comparisons
Internet shopping and mail order
Transaction size
Returns rate
Segmentation
B2C parcels segment: estimated value
B2C parcels: key assumptions
B2B / B2C segmentation
Summary of parcels market segmentation
Industry costs and profitability
Industry profitability
Employment and productivity
Industry cost inflation
Share price performance
Forecasts
GDP
Inflation
Household disposable income and retail sales
Parcels market forecast
Forecast assumptions
Appendix
LIST OF FIGURES
List of figures
UK express parcels market size and growth
FedEX UK: revenue and parcel volume
FedEx UK: revenue per parcel
Express parcels and adjacent market sizes
UK GDP in current prices (money GDP), inflation (GDP deflator) and real GDP / % annual changes
UK Inflation: Consumer price index and GDP deflator / % annual change
UK population growth: historical and forecast
UK GDP in current prices (money GDP), inflation (GDP deflator), population and real GDP per head / % annual changes
UK household disposable income and retail sales / % annual change
Internet sales: value and as % of all retailing
Household penetration of PC ownership, broadband access and internet shopping
Internet shopping penetration for selected EU countries
Internet sales and mail order
Average internet shopping transaction value
UK home shopping transactions per year
Internet shopping returns rate by category of item
UK home shopping movements per year
Home Shopping (B2C) parcels market value
Average revenue per parcel / £
B2C segment size: key assumptions and estimates
Historical B2B and B2C segmentation
Indicative market segmentation
UK express parcels: industry EBIT and margin
UK express parcels: employees and revenue per employee
UK inflation by category – Transport sector wages vs whole economy and CPI / 2002=100
UK inflation by category – fuel and motor vehicles vs CPI / 2002=100
Parcels carrier share prices vs FTAS: end of calendar year values / December 2005=100
UK GDP in current prices (money GDP), inflation (GDP deflator) and real GDP / % annual changes. Historical and OBR Autumn 2011 forecast
UK Consumer Price Index and GDP deflator / % annual change. Historical and OBR Autumn 2011 forecast
UK Household disposable income and retail sales / % annual change. Historical and OBR Autumn 2011 forecast
UK express parcels market size and growth: historical and forecast
UK express parcels market forecast assumptions

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