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Guangdong Province: Macro and Micro-economic Analysis, 2006

The Apex Group
July 1, 2006
100 Pages - SKU: ODS1315787

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Countries covered: China

Measured in terms of GDP, China is now the fourth largest economy in the world, and since 2000, its contribution to global GDP growth (in purchasing power parity terms) has been larger than that of the US and more than half as big again as the combined contribution of the three next-largest emerging economies (India, Brazil and Russia). Indeed, all the signs point to the US now viewing China as the major threat to its economic and military hegemony: According to the US National Intelligence Council’s November 2005 global outlook, entitled Mapping the Global Future, "In the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the 'American Century,' the 21st century may be seen as a time when Asia, led by China and India, comes into its own."

Market reform has unleashed the potential of China’s labour force into export-oriented manufacturing industries, creating a nascent middle class eager for levels of consumption comparable to their Western counterparts. However, it has also created socials tensions as farmers are pushed of their land by development and millions of older workers are deprived of their jobs by reforms to State Owned Enterprises.

ODS maintains that China may shortly reach a milestone in its economic development where the main engine of its growth moves from being exports to Western markets to its own domestic markets and that the emergence of China as a consumer society will have profound global implications.

Guangdong is of particular importance because it is at the leading edge of China’s development and often sets trends that then spread to the rest of the country.

Drawing on data gathered from China’s National Bureau of Statistics and supplemented by the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report and other sources, the aim of this report is to provide a detailed explanation of current trends in the province of Guangdong, China’s fourth largest province by population and its economic powerhouse, from two perspectives: those concerned with domestic consumption trends within China and the market opportunities they are likely to provide and those interested in the state of the country’s export-oriented economic sector, particularly its potential as a recipient of foreign capital.

As well as covering such topics as GDP, incomes, trade, consumption patterns, foreign investment, transport and telecommunications infrastructure, government, administration and the labour market, the report also provides a considerable body of socio-economic research on such topics as social insurance, healthcare and education as ODS believes that trends in these areas are crucial to understanding likely future outcomes in Guangdong, as well as China as a whole.

1 Introduction
2 Definition: 2.1 Note on Data Reliability
3 Executive Summary
4 Strategic Overview
5 Guangdong in the National Context: 5.1 Population; 5.2 Economic Structure; 5.3 Consumption; 5.4 Infrastructure; 5.5 Urbanisation; 5.6 Energy and Environmental Issues
6 Political & Legal Structure: 6.1 Administrative Structure; 6.2 Political Structure; 6.3 Fiscal Policy
7 Economic growth: 7.1 Nominal GDP; 7.2 Real GDP Growth; 7.3 GDP Per Capita; 7.4 Trade; 7.5 Foreign Funded Enterprises; 7.6 Employment and Unemployment; 7.7 Positioning Matrix
8 Socio-Economic Conditions: 8.1 Human Development Index; 8.2 Demographics; 8.3 Literacy and Education; 8.4 Social Insurance
9 National Overview: 9.1 Geography; 9.2 History and Economic Development; 9.3 Population; 9.4 Ethnicity and Language; 9.5 Political and Administrative System; 9.6 Regulation
10 Outlook: 10.1 SWOT Analysis; 10.2 Scenario Analysis; 10.3 Commercial Prospects; 10.4 Key Success Factors
11 Sources & Definitions
12 For Further Information
LIST OF TABLES: Table 1: Population - Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest Province, Provincial Average, National Total and EU Comparison, 2004 and Annual Growth Rate (%); Table 2: Economic Structure - National & Guangdong GDP Breakdowns by Industry Sectors (RMB Billion at current prices) 2003-2004; Table 3: Standards of Living - Living Expenditure (RMB) and Growth (%) for the Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong) and National Average, and Growth Rates (%), 2003-2004; Table 4: Standards of Living - Per Capita Annual Disposable Income of Urban Households, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Average (RMB) and Growth (%), 2004; Table 5: Standards of Living - Per Capita Net Income of Rural Households for the Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Average (RMB) and Growth (%), 2004; Table 6: Standards of Living - Per Capital Rural Household Income as a Proportion of Urban Disposable Income, Top 5 Provinces, Guangdong, Lowest and National Average(%), 2003-2004; Table 7: Consumption - Penetration of Washing Machines per 100 Urban Households and Growth Rate, Top 5 Provinces, Guangdong and National Average, 2003-2004; Table 8: Consumption - Penetration of Refrigerators per 100 Urban Households and Growth Rate, Top 5 Provinces, Guangdong and National Average, 2003-2004; Table 9: Consumption - Penetration of Colour TVs per 100 Urban Households and Growth Rate, Top 5 Ranked Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest Ranked, 2003-2004; Table 10: Consumption - Number of Air Conditioners per 100 Urban Households, Top 5 Ranked Provinces (including Guangdong), and Lowest Ranked, 2003-2004; Table 11: Privately Owned Vehicles - Cars & Trucks, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, Thousands and Growth Rate 2003-2004; Table 12: Privately Owned Vehicles - Passenger Vehicles, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, Thousands and Growth Rate 2003-2004; Table 13: Privately Owned Vehicles - Trucks, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, Thousands and Growth Rate 2003-2004; Table 14: Roadways - Kilometres of Highway per Square Kilometre and Actual Kilometres, Top 5 Provinces, Lowest, Guangdong and National Total; Table 15: Roadways - Kilometres of Expressway by Area and Actual Kilometres, Top 5 Provinces, Lowest, Guangdong and National Total, 2004; Table 16: Railways - Railway by Area and Actual Kilometres, Top 5 Provinces, Lowest, Guangdong and National Total, 2004; Table 17: Waterways - Navigable Waterways by Area and Actual Kilometres, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, 2004; Table 18: Telecoms - Mobile Phone Subscribers, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), and National Total, 2003-2004; Table 19: Telecoms - Number of Mobile Phones per 100 Urban Households, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, 2004; Table 20: Telecoms - Local Telephone Subscribers, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, 2004; Table 21: Telecoms - Number of Telephones (fixed line units) per 100 Urban Households, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, 2004; Table 22: Telecoms - Numbers of Users of Internet Services, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, 2004; Table 23: Telecoms - Number of Computers per 100 Urban Households, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, 2004; Table 24: Telecoms - Number of Fax Machines per 100 Urban Households, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, 2004; Table 25: Telecoms - Capacity of Local Telephone Exchanges, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, 2004; Table 26: Telecoms - Capacity of Mobile Telephone Exchanges, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, 2004; Table 27: Telecoms - Capacity of Long Distance Telephone Exchanges, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, 2004; Table 28: Urbanisation - Proportional Land Use (Settlement & Industry, Agriculture and Other), Top 5 Provinces, Lowest, Guangdong and National Total, 2003; Table 29: Energy - Electricity Consumption, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, 2003; Table 30: Energy - Per Capita Electricity Consumption, Top 5 Provinces, Lowest, Guangdong and National Total, 2003; Table 31: Fiscal Policy - Per-Capita Government Expenditure by Province, Top 5 Provinces, Lowest, Guangdong and National Total, 2003; Table 32: Fiscal Policy - Per-Capita Government Revenue and Expenditure by Province, Top 5 Provinces, Lowest, Guangdong and National Total, 2003; Table 33: Fiscal Policy - Budgetary Income by Category in Guangdong Province, 2003; Table 34: Fiscal Policy - Budgetary Expenditure by Category in Guangdong Province, 2003; Table 35: Economic Growth - National and Provincial Nominal GDP (RMB), Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, 2004; Table 36: Economic Growth - National and Provincial Annual Real GDP Growth, Top 5 Provinces, Lowest, Guangdong and National Average, 1999-2005; Table 37: Economic Growth - GDP per Capita, Top 5 Provinces, Lowest, Guangdong and National Total, 1999-2005; Table 38: Top 5 Exports - Exports, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, 2004 ($ Million) and Average Annual Growth Rates, 1998-2004; Table 39: Exports - Percentage Growth in Exports, Top 5 Provinces by Export Value (including Guangdong), Lowest and National Total, 1999-2004; Table 40: Exports - Growth in Export Value, Top 5 Provinces and Guangdong 1998- 2005; Table 41: Imports - Import Value & Growth, Top 5 Provinces (Including Guangdong) and National Total 1998-2004; Table 42: Imports - Percentage Growth in Imports, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong) by Import Value, 1999-2004; Table 43: Foreign Funded Enterprises - Exports by Foreign Funded Enterprises, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest, and National Total, ($ Million), Growth Rates & FFE Exports as a Proportion of Total Exports, 2004; Table 44: Foreign Funded Enterprises - Percentage Growth in Exports, Top 5 Provinces by FFE Exports (including Guangdong), Lowest, & National Total, 1998-2004; Table 45: Foreign Funded Enterprises: Imports by FFEs, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest & National Total, ($ Million), Growth Rates, 2004; Table 46: Foreign Funded Enterprises - Percentage Growth in Imports, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong) by FFE Exports, Lowest & National Total, 1998-2004; Table 47: Workforce -Registered Unemployment (Actual & Rate), Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest, Beijing & National Total, 2003; Table 48: Workforce - Level of Employment (Actual), Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Lowest, & National Total, 2003; Table 49: Relative Positioning - Exports of Foreign Funded Enterprises, Top 5 Provinces (including Guangdong), Actual & Relative Shares of National GDP & Real GDP Growth, 1998-2004; Table 50: Human Development Index - Top 5 Provinces, Lowest & Guangdong, 2003; Table 51: Demographics - Population Trends in Guangdong and China, 2003; Table 52: Demographics - Trends in Guangdong and China 2003; Table 53: Education - Rate of Illiteracy / Semi-Illiteracy by Province during 2003; Table 54: Education - Synthetic School Attendance Rate by Province in 2003; Table 55: Education - University and College Attendance Rate by Province in 2003; Table 56: Education - Government Appropriation for Education per Million of Population (10,000 Yuan), 2003; Table 57: Social Insurance - Proportional Pension Coverage by Province (%), 2003; Table 58: Social Insurance - Unemployment Insurance Coverage by Province (%), 2003; Table 59: Social Insurance - Medical Insurance Coverage by Province in 2003
LIST OF FIGURES: Figure 1: Map of Guangdong Province; Figure 2: Population Trends in Guangdong and China as a Whole; Figure 3: National Breakdown of GDP by Economic Sector 2004; Figure 4: Breakdown of GDP by Economic Sector in Guangdong 2004; Figure 5: Major Budgetary Revenue by Category in Guangdong Province 2003; Figure 6: Major Budgetary Expenditure by Category in Guangdong Province 2003; Figure 7: Nominal GDP Growth Trends in China as a Whole and Guangdong; Figure 8: Real GDP Growth Trends in China as a Whole and Guangdong; Figure 9: Growth in GDP per Capita in Guangdong and Shanghai; Figure 10: National Export Growth Against Export Growth in Guangdong; Figure 11: National Import Growth Against Growth in Guangdong; Figure 12: Exports and Imports in Guangdong; Figure 13: Growth in the Value of Export Goods of Foreign Funded Enterprises for China as a whole and Guangdong; Figure 14: Growth in the Value of Import Goods of Foreign Funded Enterprises in Guangdong and Nationally 1998-2004; Figure 15: FFE Trade in Guangdong 1998-2004; Figure 16: Matrix of Relative Market Share Against Relative Growth Rate

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