The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2011–2016


July 28, 2012
83 Pages - SKU: BCAQ4893171
License type:
Table of Contents Related Reports
Countries covered: Asia
Mobile data on smartphones, USB modems and tablets will be the key driver of telecoms retail revenue, which will increase to more than USD320 billion in 2016. The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms industry serves more than 3.7 billion people. The key trends in the next five years will be the challenge of rolling out 3G and 4G, which will account for 46% of connections by 2016; the growing demand for Internet access, leading to widespread take-up of smartphones and mobile broadband; and improved connectivity with greater network coverage and higher international bandwidth. These factors and others will contribute to retail revenue of USD322 billion in 2016.

This Report provides:
  • forecasts of key telecoms market KPIs for the emerging Asia–Pacific region
  • detailed country-level forecasts for Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand
  • discussion of key trends and market drivers for the forecast period, at regional level and by country
  • line-by-line forecasts for connections by device type and by technology, revenue, ARPU, voice/data splits, fibre and 4G take-up, and voice traffic (MoU).
Please note: this is delivered as a PowerPoint presentation.


List of Slides with Slide Numbers
8.Executive summary
9.Mobile data will be the main driver of telecoms revenue growth in emerging Asia–Pacific markets from 2011 to 2016
10.Mobile penetration in two emerging Asia–Pacific markets is higher than 100%, and penetration across the whole region will reach 95% by 2016
11.The voice market in emerging Asia–Pacific countries is increasingly mobile-dominated, and will become even more so in the forecast period
12.Broadband services in emerging Asia–Pacific will become more diverse, as wireless technologies reach new areas and fibre is rolled out in cities
13.Key findings and implications
14.Key findings and implications: [1]
15.Key findings and implications: [2]
16.Market definition and methodology
17.Geographical coverage: emerging Asia–Pacific
18.Forecasting methodology: our comprehensive telecoms forecast model is supported by a sound knowledge of markets
19.Forecasting methodology: we base our forecasts on reported metrics, and insight into market and competitive dynamics
20.Key forecast assumptions: emerging Asia–Pacific [1]
21.Key forecast assumptions: emerging Asia–Pacific [2]
22.Data series definitions: mobile
23.Data series definitions: fixed
24.Emerging Asia–Pacific forecast
25.Market context: seven countries in emerging Asia–Pacific account for 87% of the population of 3.703 billion and 90% of the telecoms retail revenue
26.Mobile data services will be the main driver of telecoms revenue and connections growth in emerging Asia–Pacific markets from 2011 to 2016
27.The emerging Asia–Pacific region will have more than 3.7 billion active mobile SIMs by the end of 2016
28.Mobile penetration will approach 100% in the region during the forecast period, but most markets will continue to have significant growth potential
29.2G connections will peak in 2013, but will continue to be the dominant mobile technology in the region throughout the forecast period
30.Revenue in all areas of the mobile market will increase during the forecast period, but data services will outstrip voice
31.The regional decline in ARPU will continue, but at a reduced pace because spending on non-voice services will mitigate the multiple-SIM effect
32.The volume of mobile voice traffic will continue to grow throughout the region as new subscribers enter the market and prices fall
33.China dominates the fixed-line sector in emerging Asia–Pacific countries, which will drive growth in the number of fixed broadband connections
34.Fixed retail revenue will continue to increase slowly during the forecast period, driven by demand for fixed broadband services
35.Individual country forecasts
36.The telecoms market in Bangladesh will grow in almost all areas during 2011 and 2016, particularly in fixed and mobile data services
37.Forecast drivers summary: Bangladesh
38.Mobile services in Bangladesh will have significant growth potential; 2G will continue to dominate the market until 2016
39.Voice services will continue to account for the largest part of the mobile market, but non-voice services are increasing in importance
40.Bangladesh’s broadband sector has enormous potential for growth, and mobile will be the access technology of choice
41.The fixed market is inferior to the mobile market in Bangladesh, and fixed wireless services will drive fixed broadband growth
42.Revenue in China’s telecoms market – the world’s largest in terms of subscribers – will grow at a 6.8% CAGR from 2011 to 2016
43.Forecast drivers summary: China
44.Mobile penetration in China will reach almost 100% by 2016, and customers will increasingly favour 3G and 4G services
45.Mobile revenue in China will reach CNY1 trillion (USD157 billion) by 2016, primarily driven by growth in handset data services
46.Smartphones account for one in four handsets in China and will dominate the Internet market in that country by 2016
47.Fixed voice is in decline, but broadband will continue to grow steadily, driven by the increased availability of high-speed services
48.Revenue will increase in all areas of the Indian telecoms market except fixed voice, which has suffered from the rise of mobile
49.Forecast drivers summary: India
50.India will have more than 1 billion active mobile subscribers by 2016, but 2G will dominate throughout the forecast period
51.India’s mobile retail revenue will increase to almost INR2 trillion in 2016, and all services will grow
52.India will have 200 million smartphones and 100 million broadband connections by 2016
53.The focus of the fixed-line market in India is rapidly shifting away from legacy voice services towards high-speed broadband
54.Data revenue will grow in Indonesia, but voice revenue will decline despite an increase in the number of connections
55.Forecast drivers summary: Indonesia
56.Mobile penetration will continue to grow rapidly in Indonesia, reaching 119% in 2016 with more than half of connections being 3G
57.Growth in Indonesia’s mobile data revenue will more than compensate for declining mobile voice revenue
58.Internet access in Indonesia will continue to be dominated by mobile connections, despite improved fixed broadband coverage
59.Broadband services in Indonesia will provide revenue growth for fixed networks, more than offsetting the decline in voice revenue
60.Voice services are near saturation in Malaysia, but fixed and mobile data has significant growth potential
61.Forecast drivers summary: Malaysia
62.Although Malaysia’s mobile market is highly penetrated, there is still scope for growth, and 3G is becoming mainstream
63.Mobile revenue will continue to grow, because an increase in data usage will compensate for saturation in the voice market
64.Smartphones are rapidly becoming the most popular way to access the Internet in Malaysia
65.Fixed voice has little prospect of growth, but fibre take-up is increasing rapidly in Malaysia
66.Mobile will continue to dominate the telecoms market in Pakistan, with an increasing emphasis on data services over voice
67.Forecast drivers summary: Pakistan
68.Mobile penetration in Pakistan will continue its slow growth, to reach 73% by 2016
69.All mobile revenue streams will increase because mobile penetration is low in Pakistan and ASPU will plateau from 2011
70.Pakistan’s Internet market is underdeveloped, but the introduction of 3G will increase the take-up of mobile data services
71.Fixed broadband will grow in Pakistan, but penetration is low, while fixed voice will decline because of fixed–mobile substitution
72.Mobile data and broadband is likely to witness significant growth in Thailand, as fixed voice services continue to face decline
73.Forecast drivers summary: Thailand
74.Network upgrades and expected 3G auctions will increase 3G take-up in Thailand, while 4G’s impact will be significant only after 2016
75.Mobile voice revenue growth will be flat between 2011 and 2016, while handset revenue will grow at a CAGR of 12%
76.The Thai government’s broadband plan, and availability of 3G services, will increase broadband and smartphone penetration
77.Fixed broadband penetration will increase in Thailand while fixed voice penetration will continue to decrease
78.About the authors and Analysys Mason
79.About the authors
80.Copyright
81.About Analysys Mason
82.Research from Analysys Mason
83.Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures [1]
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service category, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2008–2016
Figure 2: Mobile SIM penetration rates by device type and technology generation, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2008–2016
Figure 3: Voice connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2008–2016
Figure 4: Broadband connections by type, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2008–2016
Figure 5: Countries covered in this report
Figure 6: Key factors influencing forecast assumptions
Figure 7: Key metrics for historical and forecast data
Figure 8: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011
Figure 9: Telecoms retail revenue by service category, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2008–201
Figure 10: Retail telecoms revenue by service category, and growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2008–2016
Figure 11: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2008–2016
Figure 12: Active mobile SIMs by country and mobile penetration, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2008–2016
Figure 13: Active mobile SIM penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2008–2016
Figure 14: Mobile connections by technology generation, and 3G penetration, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2008–2016
Figure 15: Mobile revenue by type and non-voice services’ share of mobile revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2008–2016
Figure 16: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific‚ 2008–2016
Figure 17: Outgoing mobile voice minutes by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2008–2016
Figure 18: Fixed-line connections by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2008–2016
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2008–2016
Figure 20: Retail revenue by service type, Bangladesh, 2008–2016
Figure 21: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Bangladesh, 2008–2016
Figure 22: Growth rates of connections by type, Bangladesh, 2008–2016
Figure 23: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Bangladesh, 2008–2016
Figure 24: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Bangladesh, 2008–2016
Figure 25: Broadband connections by type and smartphones as a proportion of the active handset base, Bangladesh, 2008–2016
Figure 26: Fixed connections by type and fixed penetration, Bangladesh, 2008–2016
Figure 27: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Bangladesh, 2008–2016
Figure 28: Retail revenue by service type, China, 2008–2016
Figure 29: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, China, 2008–2016
Figure 30: Growth rates of connections by type, China, 2008–2016
Figure 31: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, China, 2008–2016
Figure 32: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, China, 2008–2016
Figure 33: Broadband connections by type and smartphones as a proportion of the active handset base, China, 2008–2016
Figure 34: Fixed connections by type and fixed penetration, China, 2008–2016
Figure 35: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, China, 2008–2016
Figure 36: Retail revenue by service type, India, 2008–2016
Figure 37: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, India, 2008–2016
Figure 38: Growth rates of connections by type, India, 2008–201
Figure 39: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, India, 2008–2016
Figure 40: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, India, 2008–2016
Figure 41: Broadband connections by type and smartphones as a proportion of the active handset base, India, 2008–2016
Figure 42: Fixed connections by type and fixed penetration, India, 2008–2016
Figure 43: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, India, 2008–2016
Figure 44: Retail revenue by service type, Indonesia, 2008–2016
Figure 45: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Indonesia, 2008–2016
Figure 46: Growth rates of connections by type, Indonesia, 2008–2016
Figure 47: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Indonesia, 2008–2016
Figure 48: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Indonesia, 2008–2016
Figure 49: Broadband connections by type and smartphones as a proportion of the active handset base, Indonesia, 2008–2016
Figure 50: Fixed connections by type and fixed penetration, Indonesia, 2008–2016
Figure 51: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Indonesia, 2008–2016
Figure 52: Retail revenue by service type, Malaysia, 2008–2016
Figure 53: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Malaysia, 2008–2016
Figure 54: Growth rates of connections by type, Malaysia, 2008–2016
Figure 55: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Malaysia, 2008–2016
Figure 56: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Malaysia, 2008–2016
Figure 57: Broadband connections by type and smartphones as a proportion of the active handset base, Malaysia, 2008–2016
Figure 58: Fixed connections by type and fixed penetration, Malaysia, 2008–2016
Figure 59: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Malaysia, 2008–2016
Figure 60: Retail revenue by service type, Pakistan, 2008–2016
Figure 61: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Pakistan, 2008–2016
Figure 62: Growth rates of connections by type, Pakistan, 2008–2016
Figure 63: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Pakistan, 2008–2016
Figure 64: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Pakistan, 2008–2016
Figure 65: Broadband connections by type and smartphones as a proportion of the active handset base, Pakistan, 2008–2016
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type and fixed penetration, Pakistan, 2008–2016
Figure 67: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Pakistan, 2008–2016
Figure 68: Retail revenue by service type, Thailand, 2008–2016
Figure 69: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Thailand, 2008–2016
Figure 70: Growth rates of connections by type, Thailand, 2008–2016
Figure 71: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Thailand, 2008–2016
Figure 72: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Thailand, 2008–2016
Figure 73: Broadband connections by type and smartphones as a proportion of the active handset base, Thailand, 2008–2016
Figure 74: Fixed connections by type and fixed penetration, Thailand, 2008–2016
Figure 75: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Thailand, 2008–2016

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