Growth in data volumes, take-up of new data devices and increasing mobile penetration are driving a substantial rise in wireless network traffic worldwide - but not at the phenomenal rates that some forecasters have claimed. Our prediction of ten- to twenty-fold growth in traffic volumes over the next five years (depending on the geographical region) is far more likely than claims of one-hundred-fold increases or more. Nevertheless, it is still a dramatic rise and will have a significant impact on operators' strategies.
The combination of rapid growth in traffic volumes and slow growth in revenue is putting increasing pressure on operators' profit margins. There has never been a time when operators have needed to plan their network roll-outs more carefully. Investing in HSPA and LTE networks is important, but operators need to take into account the ongoing decline in revenue per megabyte. As our forecasts demonstrate, they will need to abandon flat-rate pricing models - and sooner than they might think.
Our report provides a balanced view of traffic growth, which will prove valuable to vendors and investors that seek a contrasting view to some of the claims in the marketplace, as well as to operators as they formulate their plans for the next five years.
Wireless network traffic 2010-2015: forecasts and analysis provides a five-year forecast of wireless network traffic split into:
eight geographical regions: Western Europe, North America, Developed Asia-Pacific, Central and Eastern Europe, Central and Latin America, Emerging Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
five device types: basic mobile phones, smartphones, PC-based mobile broadband devices, other MBB devices (such as tablets) and M2M devices.
The data series cover the:
growth in mobile connections
proportion of smartphones and netbooks
ratio of voice to data services
growth in wireless network traffic
average wireless network traffic per connection
proportion of indoor usage
proportion of VoIP traffic
decline in revenue per gigabyte of mobile broadband traffic.
The report also discusses the following drivers of wireless traffic growth:
improvements to cellular devices
network technology evolution
new services
pricing and bundling
increasing usage of mobile devices while indoors
the increasing number of mobile connections.
5. Document map - Executive summary
6. The combination of dramatic traffic growth and slow revenue growth is putting pressure on operator profit margins
7. Connections will grow at a 8.6% CAGR from 2010 to 2015, from 5 billion to more than 7.5 billion worldwide
8. Traffic will grow at a 48% CAGR from 2010 to 2015, from 225PB per month to 1603PB per month
9. Wireless traffic is growing at a phenomenal rate, but revenue per megabyte is in decline
10. Document map - Recommendations
11. Recommendations [1]
12. Recommendations [2]
13. Document map - Forecast
14. Global mobile connections will grow at an 8.6% CAGR from 2010 to 2015 [1]
15. Global mobile connections will grow at an 8.6% CAGR from 2010 to 2015 [2]
16. The proportion of smartphones and MBB devices will increase in developed markets
17. The proportion of smartphones and MBB devices will increase in emerging markets
18. Use of cellular devices in the home and workplace will increase for both voice and data services [1]
19. Use of cellular devices in the home and workplace will increase for both voice and data services [2]
20. Global traffic from mobile connections will be seven times greater in 2015 than in 2010 [1]
21. Global traffic from mobile connections will be seven times greater in 2015 than in 2010 [2]
22. The average volume of traffic per connection will 6.5 times greater in developed markets by 2015 [1]
23. The average volume of traffic per connection will 6.5 times greater in developed markets by 2015 [2]
24. Data traffic will exceed voice traffic in all markets by 2013 [1]
25. Data traffic will exceed voice traffic in all markets by 2013 [2]
26. VoIP traffic will not have a significant impact on total network traffic [1]
27. VoIP traffic will not have a significant impact on total network traffic [2]
28. Revenue per gigabyte will fall from USD23.21 to USD4.27 in developed markets
29. The adoption of data services will increase ARPU, but revenue per gigabyte will inevitably fall
30. Document map - Market drivers and inhibitors
31. Market drivers
32. Improvements to cellular devices will increase service usage and wireless network traffic [1]
33. Improvements to cellular devices will increase service usage and wireless network traffic [2]
34. Improved cellular devices will increase service usage and wireless network traffic [3]
35. Technology enhancements will increase usage and wireless network traffic
36. Technology enhancements improve throughputs, allowing support for a wider range of applications [1]
37. Technology enhancements improve throughputs, allowing support for a wider range of applications [2]
38. More-affordable prices and bundling of services will increase usage and wireless network traffic
39. New services will increase wireless network traffic [1]
40. New services will increase wireless network traffic [2]
41. Growth in indoor usage of cellular devices will increase wireless network traffic [1]
42. Growth in indoor usage of cellular devices will increase wireless network traffic [2]
43. Growth in the number of mobile connections will increase wireless network traffic
44. Market inhibitors
45. Restriction of some types of service and application by MNOs would constrain wireless network traffic [1]
46. Restriction of some types of service and application by MNOs would constrain wireless network traffic [2]
47. Improved fixed broadband services, particularly in developed markets, may constrain wireless network traffic
48. Handover between fixed and mobile in the home, where broadband usage is highest, will take traffic off-network
49. Spectrum limitations will constrain traffic growth
50. Document map - Market definition and methodology
51. Methodology for forecasts of traffic volume and revenue per megabyte
52. The forecasts divide the world into eight regions [1]
53. The forecasts divide the world into eight regions [2]
54. The basis of the traffic model
55. The traffic model considers traffic from five types of cellular device
56. A number of variables could significantly affect wireless network traffic levels
57. Environmental assumptions for devices
58. Environmental assumptions for wireless technologies
59. Environmental assumptions for pricing and bundling
60. Environmental assumptions for indoor usage
61. Environmental assumptions for the growth in cellular penetration
62. Environmental assumptions for MNOs’ constraints on certain types of traffic
63. Environmental assumptions for improvements in fixed broadband services
64. Document map - Author and copyright
65. Author
66. Copyright
67. Document map - List of tables and figures
68. List of tables and figures [1]
69. List of tables and figures [2]
70. List of tables and figures [3]
71. Document map - About Analysys Mason
72. About Analysys Mason
73. Research from Analysys Mason
74. Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures and Tables
Figure 1: Comparison of the network economics of legacy and LTE networks
Figure 2: Mobile connections, worldwide, 2010-2015
Figure 3: Traffic from mobile connections, worldwide, 2010-2015
Figure 4: Average wireless network traffic per connection, worldwide, 2010-2015
Figure 5: Revenue per gigabyte of mobile broadband traffic, worldwide, 2010-2015
Figure 6: Mobile connections, worldwide, 2010-2015
Figure 7: Mobile connections by region, 2010-2015
Figure 8: Mobile devices in use by type, developed markets, 2010-2015
Figure 9: Mobile devices in use by type, emerging markets, 2010-2015
Figure 10: Proportion of wireless network traffic that is generated indoors, worldwide, 2010-2015
Figure 11: Proportion of wireless network traffic that is generated indoors, by region, 2010-2015
Figure 12: Traffic from mobile connections, worldwide, 2010-2015
Figure 13: Traffic from mobile connections, by region, 2010-2015
Figure 14: Average traffic per mobile connection, worldwide, 2010-2015
Figure 15: Average traffic per mobile connection, by region, 2010-2015
Figure 16: Data services as a proportion of wireless network traffic, worldwide, 2010-2015
Figure 17: Data services as a proportion of wireless network traffic, by region, 2010-2015
Figure 18: VoIP as a proportion of wireless network voice traffic, worldwide, 2010-2015
Figure 19: VoIP as a proportion of wireless network voice traffic, by region, 2010-2015
Figure 20: Revenue per gigabyte of mobile broadband traffic, worldwide, 2010-2015
Figure 21: Revenue per gigabyte of mobile broadband traffic, by region, 2010-2015
Figure 22: Major factors driving increases in wireless network traffic from cellular users
Figure 23: Proportion of wireless network traffic that is generated indoors, by region, 2008-2010
Figure 24: Mobile connections, worldwide, 2010-2015
Figure 25: Major factors constraining growth in wireless network traffic from cellular users
Figure 26: Household penetration of fixed broadband services in selected countries, 2010-2015
Figure 27: Fixed and mobile, mobile-only and fixed-only broadband households in CEE, 2009-2015
Figure 28: Current spectrum supply and spectrum to be awarded in Europe in the next five years for mobile use
Figure 29: Regional breakdown used in this report
Figure 30: Basis of the wireless network traffic model
Figure 31: Five types of cellular device included in the traffic model
Table 1: Examples of smartphone applications that could consume substantial amounts of data
Tables 2a-b: Summary of advanced cellular broadband technologies
Table 3: Regional breakdown used in this report
Table 4: Traffic modelling assumptions for devices
Table 5: Traffic modelling assumptions for wireless technologies
Table 6: Traffic modelling assumptions for pricing and bundling
Table 7: Traffic modelling assumptions for indoor usage
Table 8: Traffic modelling assumptions for growth in cellular penetration
Table 9: Traffic modelling assumptions for MNOs’ constraints on certain types of traffic
Table 10: Traffic modelling assumptions for improvements in fixed broadband services
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