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The Western European Mobile Market: trends and forecasts 2007-12
Analysys Mason
August 17, 2007 SKU: BCAQ1545269
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Countries covered: Europe
The Western European Mobile Market: trends and forecasts 2007-12 analyses the trends that are shaping the mobile market in Western Europe and examines how they differ across seven key markets - France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK. The report presents detailed forecasts of subscriber numbers, ARPU, revenue, retail spend and average spend per user to 2012 for these markets, as well as for Western Europe as a whole.
The forecasts are broken down by technology generation (2G, 2.5G, 3G and 3.5G), market segment (residential prepaid, residential contract, SME and large corporate) and service category (voice, SMS, email, other person-to-person messaging, data networking, browsing, paid information, entertainment, m-commerce and videotelephony). Separate forecasts are provided for total mobile service revenue and operator-billed revenue.
This report is essential reading for anyone wanting to understand the factors that will influence the nature and size of the Western European mobile market over the next six years. The slide-pack format makes it quick and easy to grasp the key issues, while the Excel data tables of forecasts are ideal for those wanting more detailed estimates for particular countries, market segments, technologies or services. If you are making decisions regarding investments or strategies in the mobile market - whether for an investment bank, vendor, operator, systems integrator, IT vendor, portal, content provider, applications developer or consultancy - you cannot afford to be without this report and its detailed forecasts.
The Western European Mobile Market: trends and forecasts 2007-12 answers your key questions:
- What is driving the decline in voice ARPU and is this decline occurring to the same extent in all markets? Are there opportunities to increase voice ARPU?
- To what extent have operators in different countries been successful in using non-voice services to boost ARPU?
- What types of messaging and non-messaging services have the greatest potential for future growth?
- What is the progress of 3G and 3.5G adoption so far? For which services can 3G and 3.5G technology be used most efficiently in the short term?
- What new technologies are available, which of these have the greatest potential to drive revenue and which can be implemented in the near future?
- What proportion of total mobile service revenue will be billed for by operators and how much of this revenue will third parties receive?
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- Contents
- Executive summary
- Purpose and scope
- Scope of report and definitions
- Market trends across Western Europe
- Overall Western European trends in penetration, prepaid/contract customer mix, technology adoption and mobile service ARPU and revenue
- ARPU trends and forecasts for voice services, non-voice services, SMS, email, other P2P messaging, data networking, browsing, paid information, entertainment, m-commerce and videotelephony in Western Europe
- Current status of, and outlook for, HSPA, broadcast TV, WiMAX, femtocell technology and FMC
- Major regulatory developments
- Individual country market forecasts and analysis
- Trends in, and forecasts for, penetration, prepaid/contract customer mix, technology adoption, voice ARPU and non-voice ARPU, as well as recent market developments, in:
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- the Netherlands
- Spain
- Sweden
- the UK
- Actions
- Figures and tables
- Figure 1: Active subscribers and penetration rates in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 2: Distribution of active subscribers in Western Europe by country, December 2006
- Figure 3: Penetration of active subscribers in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 4: Penetration of active subscribers versus percentage of prepaid subscribers in Western Europe, December 2006
- Figure 5: Active subscribers in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 6: Active subscriber net additions in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 7: Active subscribers in Western Europe by generation of handset technology, 2002-12
- Figure 8: Active subscriber net additions in Western Europe by generation of handset technology, 2002-12
- Figure 9: Revenue from mobile services in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 10: Voice ARPU in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 11: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 12: SMS ARPU and SMS as a percentage of total ARPU in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 13: Email ARPU and email as a percentage of total ARPU in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 14: Other P2P messaging ARPU and other P2P messaging as a percentage of total ARPU in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 15: Data networking ARPU and data networking as a percentage of total ARPU in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 16: Browsing ARPU and browsing as a percentage of total ARPU in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 17: Paid information ARPU and paid information as a percentage of total ARPU in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 18: Entertainment ARPU and entertainment as a percentage of total ARPU in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 19: M-commerce ARPU and m-commerce as a percentage of total ARPU in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 20: Videotelephony ARPU and videotelephony as a percentage of total ARPU in Western Europe, 2002-12
- Figure 21: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in France, 2002-12
- Figure 22: Active subscribers in France, 2002-12
- Figure 23: Active subscriber net additions in France, 2002-12
- Figure 24: Active subscribers by generation of handset technology in France, 2002-12
- Figure 25: Active subscriber net additions by generation of handset technology in France, 2002-12
- Figure 26: Voice ARPU in France, 2002-12
- Figure 27: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in France, 2002-12
- Figure 28: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in Germany, 2002-12
- Figure 29: Active subscribers in Germany, 2002-12
- Figure 30: Active subscriber net additions in Germany, 2002-12
- Figure 31: Active subscribers by generation of handset technology in Germany, 2002-12
- Figure 32: Active subscriber net additions by generation of handset technology in Germany, 2002-12
- Figure 33: Voice ARPU in Germany, 2002-12
- Figure 34: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in Germany, 2002-12
- Figure 35: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in Italy, 2002-12
- Figure 36: Active subscribers in Italy, 2002-12
- Figure 37: Active subscriber net additions in Italy, 2002-12
- Figure 38: Active subscribers by generation of handset technology in Italy, 2002-12
- Figure 39: Active subscriber net additions by generation of handset technology in Italy, 2002-12
- Figure 40: Voice ARPU in Italy, 2002-12
- Figure 41: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in Italy, 2002-12
- Figure 42: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in the Netherlands, 2002-12
- Figure 43: Active subscribers in the Netherlands, 2002-12
- Figure 44: Active subscriber net additions in the Netherlands, 2002-12
- Figure 45: Active subscribers by generation of handset technology in the Netherlands, 2002-12
- Figure 46: Active subscriber net additions by generation of handset technology in the Netherlands, 2002-12
- Figure 47: Voice ARPU in the Netherlands, 2002-12
- Figure 48: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in the Netherlands, 2002-12
- Figure 49: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in Spain, 2002-12
- Figure 50: Active subscribers in Spain, 2002-12
- Figure 51: Active subscriber net additions in Spain, 2002-12
- Figure 52: Active subscribers by generation of handset technology in Spain, 2002-12
- Figure 53: Active subscriber net additions by generation of handset technology in Spain, 2002-12
- Figure 54: Voice ARPU in Spain, 2002-12
- Figure 55: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in Spain, 2002-12
- Figure 56: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in Sweden, 2002-12
- Figure 57: Active subscribers in Sweden, 2002-12
- Figure 58: Active subscriber net additions in Sweden, 2002-12
- Figure 59: Active subscribers by generation of handset technology in Sweden, 2002-12
- Figure 60: Active subscriber net additions by generation of handset technology in Sweden, 2002-12
- Figure 61: Voice ARPU in Sweden, 2002-12
- Figure 62: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in Sweden, 2002-12
- Figure 63: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in the UK, 2002-12
- Figure 64: Active subscribers in the UK, 2002-12
- Figure 65: Active subscriber net additions in the UK, 2002-12
- Figure 66: Active subscribers by generation of handset technology in the UK, 2002-12
- Figure 67: Active subscriber net additions by generation of handset technology in the UK, 2002-12
- Figure 68: Voice ARPU in the UK, 2002-12
- Figure 69: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in the UK, 2002-12
- Figure 70: Example of methodology for forecasting ARPU
- Figure 71: Key inputs and outputs for mobile forecast model
- Figure 72: Key inputs and outputs for service-level components of forecast model
- Figure 73: Key inputs and outputs for calculating active subscribers
- Figure 74: Total Western European mobile service revenue split by operator-billed and other, 2006-12
- Figure 75: Percentage of operator-billed revenue for selected non-P2P data services for Western Europe, 2006-12
- Figure 76: Total Western European mobile retail spend and interconnect revenue, 2006-12
- Table 1a-b: Historical KPIs and market forecasts by country, 2006 and 2012
- Table 2: Active subscribers in Western Europe by country, December 2006
- Table 3: Market position of operators in France, December 2006
- Table 4: Market position of operators in Germany, December 2006
- Table 5: Market position of operators in Italy, December 2006
- Table 6: Market position of operators in the Netherlands, December 2006
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