The Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2012–2017Analysys MasonOctober 17, 2012 77 Pages - SKU: BCAQ4893161 |
- List of Slides with Slide Numbers
- 8.Executive summary
- 9.The telecoms retail market in the Middle East and North Africa will reach USD96 billion by 2017, driven by mobile data and fixed broadband
- 10.2G connections will peak in 2015 in the Middle East and North Africa, and will be gradually replaced by 3G and 4G connections
- 11.Mobile will continue to dominate the voice market in MENA due to limited fixed infrastructure, and the geography and demographics of the region
- 12.Broadband connections in the Middle East and North Africa will nearly double and mobile will account for 69% of connections by 2017
- 13.Key implications
- 14.Key implications [1]
- 15.Key implications [2]
- 16.Market definition and methodology
- 17.Geographical coverage
- 18.Forecasting methodology: our comprehensive telecoms forecast model is supported by a sound knowledge of the MENA markets
- 19.Forecasting methodology: we base our forecasts on reported metrics, and insight into market and competitive dynamics in individual countries
- 20.Key forecast assumptions [1]
- 21.Key forecast assumptions [2]
- 22.Data series definitions: mobile
- 23.Data series definitions: fixed
- 24.Middle East and North Africa regional forecast
- 25.Market context: the six countries modelled individually represent 50% of total population and contribute 57% of telecoms retail revenue in MENA
- 26.Mobile data services will be the main driver of telecoms revenue and connections in the Middle East and North Africa from 2012 to 2017
- 27.The Middle East and North Africa will have more than 580 million active mobile SIMs by the end of 2017
- 28.Although mobile penetration was near 100% in the region in 2011, the number of connections will continue to grow in most countries
- 29.2G connections will peak in 2015 in the Middle East and North Africa, and will be gradually replaced by 3G and 4G connections
- 30.Data will drive mobile revenue growth in MENA, helping to offset the modest increase in voice revenue during the forecast period
- 31.ARPU will continue to decline in the region, but at a reduced pace because spending on non-voice voice services will offset a decline in voice spend
- 32.The volume of mobile voice traffic will continue to grow throughout the region as new subscribers enter the market
- 33.Fixed broadband will experience double-digit growth in most countries in the Middle East and North Africa while fixed voice lines will decline
- 34.Demand for fixed broadband and business services will offset the declining fixed voice revenue during the forecast period
- 35.Individual country forecasts
- 36.Algeria’s telecoms market will grow more quickly than most because of the arrival of 3G and expansion of fixed broadband
- 37.Forecast drivers summary: Algeria
- 38.Mobile services in Algeria will grow because of 3G but 2G will continue to dominate the market until 2017
- 39.Mobile data services will increase in importance while voice will continue to represent the largest part of the mobile market
- 40.Algeria’s broadband sector has great potential for growth thanks to increased demand for mobile data services
- 41.The fixed market is less buoyant than the mobile market in Algeria; DSL will continue to be the main option for fixed broadband
- 42.Fixed and mobile broadband services will drive growth in Egypt’s telecoms market
- 43.Forecast drivers summary: Egypt
- 44.Egypt’s mobile market will reach 100% penetration in 2014 and will continue to be dominated by 2G
- 45.Mobile voice will continue to generate the largest portion of mobile revenue in Egypt, and mobile data will drive the growth
- 46.Mobile will drive growth in Egypt’s broadband market, and smartphones will represent an increasing share of handsets
- 47.The fixed market in Egypt is significantly smaller than the mobile market and the fixed voice market is in continual decline
- 48.After a dramatic drop in mobile revenue in 2011, most telecoms services will decline in Israel
- 49.Forecast drivers summary: Israel
- 50.Israel’s mobile market is highly penetrated, so we expect only slight growth, driven by mobile broadband
- 51.Mobile broadband revenue in Israel will grow twice as quickly as handset data revenue, but voice revenue will continue to decline
- 52.Unlike most other countries in the region, Israel has more fixed broadband connections than mobile, although the gap is shrinking
- 53.The fixed voice market in Israel is in steady decline, but the fixed broadband market will show modest growth
- 54.Mobile will continue to dominate the telecoms market in Morocco, and data services will represent a growing share of retail revenue
- 55.Forecast drivers summary: Morocco
- 56.Mobile penetration in Morocco will continue its growth, to reach 153% by 2017, driven by 3G and 4G take-up
- 57.Voice services will continue to account for the largest part of the mobile market, but non-voice services are increasing in importance
- 58.Morocco’s broadband sector has potential for growth, and mobile will continue to be the preferred access technology
- 59.Growth of fixed broadband will offset the stagnating fixed voice market and fibre will have a minor impact during the forecast period
- 58.Revenue in Saudi Arabia’s telecoms market will grow at a 3.5% CAGR from 2012 to 2017 driven by broadband and data
- 61.Forecast drivers summary: Saudi Arabia
- 62.Penetration of active mobile connections in Saudi Arabia will reach almost 150% by 2017, driven by take-up of 3G and 4G services
- 63.Mobile revenue in Saudi Arabia will reach SAR47 billion by 2017, primarily driven by growth in data services
- 64.High GDP per capita and data service affordability will drive take-up of smartphones, which will account for 27% of handsets by 2017
- 65.Fixed voice revenue will be relatively stable, but broadband revenue will continue to grow at a CAGR of 5% from 2012 to 2017
- 66.Retail revenue in UAE will grow at a 3% CAGR, led by double-digit growth in mobile handset data and mobile broadband
- 67.Forecast drivers summary: UAE
- 68.UAE was one of the first countries in MENA to launch 4G services, and will have the highest proportion of 4G subscribers by 2017
- 69.Increasing 4G adoption in UAE will drive growth in mobile broadband and handset data revenue
- 70.UAE operators will increasingly focus on broadband services to offset declines in the fixed and mobile voice markets
- 71.Declining fixed broadband ARPU in UAE will result in revenue growth that is lower than subscriber growth
- 72.About the authors and Analysys Mason
- 73.About the authors
- 74.About Analysys Mason
- 75.Research from Analysys Mason
- 76.Consulting from Analysys Mason
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