LTE infrastructure: worldwide demand drivers and base station forecast 2012–2017

Executive summary
Summary by region: NA and CALA
Summary by region: WE and CEE
Summary by region: MENA and SSA
Summary by region: DVAP and EMAP

Key implications

Market definition
The forecast takes into account RAN refresh, heterogeneous networks, offloading and network sharing, but excludes TD-LTE
The forecast does not take into account the migration from CDMA to LTE
Definition of geographical regions

Forecasts

Forecasts: North America
North America forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload, spectrum availability and RAN refresh
North America forecast assumptions: network sharing
North America: connections, traffic per connections and devices in use
North America: network capacity upgrades
North America: base station deployments
North America: RAN refresh and total deployments

Forecasts: Caribbean and Latin America
Caribbean and Latin America forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload, spectrum availability and RAN refresh
Caribbean and Latin America forecast assumptions: network sharing
Caribbean and Latin America: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
Caribbean and Latin America: network capacity upgrades
Caribbean and Latin America: base station deployments
Caribbean and Latin America: RAN refresh and total deployments

Forecasts: Western Europe
Western Europe forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload, spectrum availability and RAN refresh
Western Europe forecast assumptions: network sharing
Western Europe: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
Western Europe: network capacity upgrades
Western Europe: base station deployments
Western Europe: RAN refresh and total deployments

Forecasts: Central and Eastern Europe
Central and Eastern Europe forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload, spectrum availability and RAN refresh
Central and Eastern Europe forecast assumptions: network sharing
Central and Eastern Europe: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
Central and Eastern Europe: network capacity upgrades
Central and Eastern Europe: base station deployments
Central and Eastern Europe: RAN refresh and total deployments

Forecasts: The Middle East and North Africa
The Middle East and North Africa forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload, spectrum availability and RAN refresh
The Middle East and North Africa forecast assumptions: network sharing
The Middle East and North Africa: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
The Middle East and North Africa: network capacity upgrades
The Middle East and North Africa: base station deployments
The Middle East and North Africa: RAN refresh and total deployments

Forecasts: Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload and spectrum availability
Sub-Saharan Africa forecast assumptions: RAN refresh and network sharing
Sub-Saharan Africa: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
Sub-Saharan Africa: network capacity upgrades
Sub-Saharan Africa: base station deployments
Sub-Saharan Africa: RAN refresh and total deployments

Forecasts: Developed Asia–Pacific
Developed Asia–Pacific forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload
Developed Asia–Pacific forecast assumptions: spectrum availability and RAN refresh
Developed Asia–Pacific forecast assumptions: network sharing
Developed Asia–Pacific: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
Developed Asia–Pacific: network capacity upgrades
Developed Asia–Pacific: base station deployments
Developed Asia–Pacific: RAN refresh and total deployments

Forecasts: Emerging Asia–Pacific
Emerging Asia–Pacific forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload
Emerging Asia–Pacific forecast assumptions: spectrum availability
Emerging Asia–Pacific forecast assumptions: RAN refresh
Emerging Asia–Pacific forecast assumptions: network sharing
Emerging Asia–Pacific: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
Emerging Asia–Pacific: network capacity upgrades
Emerging Asia–Pacific: base station deployments
Emerging Asia–Pacific: RAN refresh and total deployments

Market drivers and inhibitors
MNOs want to increase throughput and reduce latency
The main driver behind LTE adoption is access to spectrum
In addition to new spectrum, LTE offers access to wider bandwidths
LTE enables improved spectrum utilisation, but not spectrum efficiency
LTE enables heterogeneous networks
LTE offers improved interference management techniques: ICIC
LTE offers improved interference management techniques: CoMP
Smart antenna systems
Spectrum utilisation: smart antenna systems
Easier Web access as a driver for LTE: all-IP and reduced latency
LTE offers a roadmap for the continuing development of access network technology
LTE is not the only technology to offer a roadmap for the continuing development of access network technology
Voice and the all-IP LTE network: a driver or an inhibitor?

Business environment
The business environment for LTE
Migrating technologies: CDMA and WiMAX
Complementary and competing technologies: HSPA
Complementary and competing technologies: Wi-Fi
Regulatory changes

Methodology
Forecast methodology: a four-step process
Step 1: determining the number of subscribers, or connections, in a region
Step 2: determining the number of subscribers that a typical base station supports in a region [1]
Step 2: determining the number of subscribers that a typical base station supports in a region [2]
Step 2: determining the number of subscribers that a typical base station supports in a region [3]
Step 3: determining the network loading on the region’s GSM, UMTS and LTE networks from the multi-mode devices
Step 4: estimating the number of base stations that need to be deployed

List of figures
Figure 1: Cumulative new base station deployments by technology, worldwide, 2012–2017
Figure 2: Base station refresh deployments by technology, worldwide, 2012–2017
Figure 3: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, and number of sites, worldwide, 2012–2017
Figure 4: CDMA and 3GPP subscribers, worldwide, 2012–2017
Figure 5: Regional breakdown used in this report
Figure 6: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, North America, 2012–2017
Figure 7: Mobile devices in use by type, North America, 2012–2017
Figure 8: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for North America
Figure 9: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, North America, 2012–2017
Figure 10: Base station refresh deployments by technology, North America, 2012–2017
Figure 11: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, North America, 2012–2017
Figure 12: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Caribbean and Latin America, 2012–2017
Figure 13: Mobile devices in use by type, Caribbean and Latin America, 2012–2017
Figure 14: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for Caribbean and Latin America
Figure 15: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Caribbean and Latin America, 2012–2017
Figure 16: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Caribbean and Latin America, 2012–2017
Figure 17: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Caribbean and Latin America, 2012–2017
Figure 18: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Western Europe, 2012–2017
Figure 19: Mobile devices in use by type, Western Europe, 2012–2017
Figure 20: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for Western Europe
Figure 21: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Western Europe, 2012–2017
Figure 22: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Western Europe, 2012–2017
Figure 23: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Western Europe, 2012–2017
Figure 24: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2017
Figure 25: Mobile devices in use by type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2017
Figure 26: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 27: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2017
Figure 28: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2017
Figure 29: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2017
Figure 30: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, the Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2017
Figure 31: Mobile devices in use by type, the Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2017
Figure 32: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for the Middle East and North Africa
Figure 33: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, the Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2017
Figure 34: Base station refresh deployments by technology, the Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2017
Figure 35: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, the Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2017
Figure 36: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2017
Figure 37: Mobile devices in use by type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2017
Figure 38: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 39: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2017
Figure 40: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2017
Figure 41: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2017
Figure 42: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2017
Figure 43: Mobile devices in use by type, Developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2017
Figure 44: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for Developed Asia–Pacific
Figure 45: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2017
Figure 46: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2017
Figure 47: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2017
Figure 48: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2017
Figure 49: Mobile devices in use by type, Emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2017
Figure 50: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for Emerging Asia–Pacific
Figure 51: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2017
Figure 52: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2017
Figure 53: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2017
Figure 54: Frequency bands where LTE spectrum is available, selected regions and countries, April 2012
Figure 55: LTE, LTE-Advanced, and IMT-Advanced performance targets for downlink (DL) and uplink (UL)
Figure 56: Examples of WiMAX operators that are planning to migrate to LTE
Figure 57: Methodology for determining 3GPP subscribers per region
Figure 58: Methodology for determining 3GPP cell capacity
Figure 59: Spectral efficiency assumptions used in the forecast
Figure 60: Percentage spread of a typical capacity intervention across a given region over the forecast period
Figure 61: Methodology for determining 3GPP distribution of cell load per 3GPP air interface
Figure 62: Methodology for estimating the number of base stations that need to be deployed