Kenya Mobile: Tough Competitive Environment to Push Business Model Innovation


May 15, 2008
19 Pages - SKU: AFN1929362
License type:
Countries covered: Kenya

Kenya’s economy has been in sustained growth pattern over the past three year and is set to rebound from the hiccup of post-election violence of early 2008. The mobile market is still in growth phase, with organic subscriber expansion bound to remain solid over the next two years, thanks to the entry of two new players in the market in 2008 - France Telecom and Econet. From an individual operator’s standpoint -and Safaricom aside, this is one of Africa’s toughest mobile markets. Deteriorating marginal revenue, stiff price competition, dominant market leader. On the flip side, the opex environment is one of Africa’s most favorable, making it possible for operators to push the boundaries of the mobile business model.


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: BETTER DAYS AHEAD


REGULATORY BAROMETER: ABOVE AVERAGE REGULATORY EFFECTIVENESS, BUT CHALLENGES LOOM


MOBILE MARKET: A $1BN+ MARKET


SUBSCRIBER MARKET DYNAMICS: NO SLOWDOWN IN SIGHT, BUT DOES THAT REALLY MATTER?


ARPU & REVENUE DYNAMICS: A DETERIORATING REVENUE ENVIRONMENT


KEY PLAYER SHARE ANALYSIS: OF COMPETITION PARADOXES, CLUB EFFECTS AND MARKET SHARE


COUNTRY OPEX PROFILE: LOWER THAN THE AFRICAN AVERAGE


COUNTRY CAPEX PROFILE: A $400M+/YEAR MARKET, WITH MORE ON THE WAY


SUMMARY FCF PROFILE: GOOD FOR SAFARICOM, TOUGH FOR EVERYBODY ELSE


KEY PLAYER SWOT ANALYSIS - SAFARICOM, A BLUEPRINT FOR LEGAL MARKET DOMINANCE


KEY PLAYER SWOT ANALYSIS - CELTEL, LOOKING FOR A TURNAROUND


MARKET OUTLOOK - PROJECTION TABLE


THE AFRICANEXT MARKET WATCHLIST

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