Cote-d’Ivoire Mobile: Still Solid, but Increasingly Tough Cash Flow Environment

Cote-d’Ivoire’s economy remains in recovery mode, even as the country continues to enjoy the returns from increased political stability. The recovery phase will continue in 2008 but will be fragile, as tensions slowly rise in the run-up to the presidential elections scheduled for November 2008. While mobile revenue potential remains solid, we believe the market is seeing a shift to a lesser quality of growth: organic revenue growth is slowing, owing to lower marginal growth, market maturity and the law of large figures. The Ivorian opex environment is one of the least friendly in the region, and capex risk is moderate. Ultimately, we are cautious on the return potential of the Cote-d’Ivoire combination: slower revenue growth, intense competition, capex-intense, politically volatile.