The Business Case for Mobile Broadband in Africa

While our analysis has been largely bullish on African mobile broadband, we see some risks that are inherent to the model itself. The problem with mobile data is that the more popular it becomes, the more downward pressure there will be on prices and upwards pressure there will be on costs. ARPU looks good, Capex is manageable, Opex doesn’t look pretty.

With mobile data, mobile operators are entering an environment in which margins are lower than that to which they have become accustomed. This doesn’t mean they should not do it; indeed, it is critical that they do, for this isn’t merely about increasing ARPUs. Our larger point is that investor return expectations will ultimately need to be re-adjusted, all the more so in African mobile markets where return expectations have become oversized.

A part of our larger broadband review, this report delves into the economics and business model issues around mobile broadband in Africa, including ARPU evolution, Opex and Capex impact and overall 3G subscriber valuation.