AMA Research are pleased to announce the publication of a new report - UK Smart Meters Market 2010-2020 which is part of our new series on the rapidly growing sustainable energy sector. The three reports covering microgeneration are: Ground and Air Source Heat Pumps Market, Solar Thermal and Photovoltaics (PV) Market, Domestic Biomass Market.
In the UK, the market for Smart Meters is in its infancy, but is set to grow rapidly in the next few years as part of the drive to improve energy-efficiency.
The roll out of smart meters will involve the replacement of some 47 million gas and electricity meters and the provision of associated communications. The cost is estimated at approximately £8.6 billion and is expected to deliver total benefits of £14.6 billion, but current overall volumes are still relatively low in the UK. However, the market is set to grow rapidly in the next few years, though capacity will need to increase - not only in terms of production, but also in terms of installation capability of up to 80,000+ per week to meet demand projections.
The report contains:
MARKET OVERVIEW - market size for smart meters, review of key market influences and analysis of current developments.
KEY MARKET DRIVERS & BARRIERS TO GROWTH.
REVIEW OF SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE.
FORECASTS FOR MARKET DEVELOPMENTS UP TO 2020 - volumes/product mix.
Areas of particular interest include:-
Smart Meters - current state of UK market development - policy options
Overview of microgeneration renewables - ground / air source heat pumps, biomass boilers, solar thermal and PV. - market size, forecasts, drivers / barriers to growth etc
Overview of market drivers and barriers to growth of smart meters in UK - key opportunities and constraints.
Supply and distribution issues - installation volumes/capacity
Smart Meters Market forecasts up to 2020 - volumes, market values - gas / electricity, display and installation costs.
Companies profiled include:-
AlertMe, Bglobal, British Gas, Echelon, EDF, Efergy Elite, Elster Group, First:Utility, G4S Utility Services, GE, ISKRAEMECO, Itron, Landis+Gyr, Logica, Metertec, Npower, OnStream, Providor, Scottish Power, Sensus, Siemens Metering Services, Stark, Utility Partnership Ltd (UPL).
Key areas covered in the report:
KEY MARKET INFLUENCES
Housing market structure, UK dwelling stock, housing stock mix by age (2007/2050).
Growth in proportion of owner-occupied housing.
Government Incentives - Low Carbon Buildings Programme (LCBP). Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme, Feed-In-Tariffs (FIT’s), PAYS (Pay As You Save), The Code for Sustainable Homes etc.
Provision of financial support - impact of change in government.
CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES
Strategies to combat climate change: the EU Renewable Energy Directive, the UK Renewable Energy Strategy, Code for Sustainable Homes, Warmer Homes Standard.
Establishment of Renewable Energy Deployment programme. Overview of Renewable Energy market in UK - alternative options - microgeneration technologies.
SMART METERS MARKET
Market Background - policy options, key market drivers, comparisons with other EU markets.
Costs / benefits - capital / IT / Installation / Operating costs - consumer and supplier benefits - impact on energy consumption, meter reading, better monitoring and control, impact on prices and competition levels. Overview of estimates / limitations.
Market overview - market size for Smart Meters - installation volumes, market values (gas / electricity meters) - display /installation estimates 2012-20.
Barriers to growth - supply chain issues, roll-out programme, priorities, timescales, installation issues, new build/replacement, consumer issues, etc.
Forecasts up to 2020 - alternative views, volume projections for 2012-2020, range of key influencing factors eg: installation capacity, funding support, impact on take-up of microgeneration etc.
Microgeneration - market overviews of key renewables - market size, drivers / barriers to growth, forecasts of market growth from 2010-2020:
Solar Thermal and PV
Biomass Boilers
Ground & Air Source Heat Pumps.
SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE
Key players - suppliers, manufactures, installers, utilities, logistics, IT etc. - market structure.
UK distribution structure - key routes to market - evolving supply and distribution structure, development of consortia etc.
Additional Information
As part of the transition to a low carbon economy the government announced in December 2009 its intention to roll out the programme to replace the existing approximately 47million gas and electricity meters in Great Britain with smart meters by 2020.
As shown in the table left, the roll out of the majority of smart meters is intended to take place over the period 2012 to 2020 and within the peak 4 year period 2014 - 2017 around 33m electricity and gas meters are planned to be replaced in 18m households.
At present, volumes in 2010 are forecast at around 250,000 units which would mean around a 10-fold increase in the next 2 years alone just to achieve the 2012 starting point illustrated in the chart. Undoubtedly, volumes are rising with leading utilities such as British Gas expanding their installation programmes, but further expansion of the installation network will be significant to achieve the target rates. However, British Gas themselves have set a target of 2 million installations by 2012 which, if achieved, will result in the overall achievement of the 2012 target
Very recent announcements by the new coalition government have indicated a desire to bring forward completion of the programme to 2018 which would equate to an average installation rate of around 80-90,000 units per week in the 2012-2018 period - up from around 5000-6000 at present.
The roll out of smart meters will involve the replacement of some 47 million gas and electricity meters and the provision of associated communications. The cost is estimated at approximately £8.6 billion and is expected to deliver total benefits of £14.6 billion over a 20-year period, producing a net benefit of approximately £6 billion.
In 2012, the value of both gas and electricity smart meters is expected to rise to around £100m with displays at about £50m and the installation costs at £53m. As volumes increase, meter supply, display and installations bring the total market value to a peak of approximately £750m in 2014 remaining at that level to 2016 before gradually reducing to less than £100m by 2020.
