AMA Research are pleased to announce the publication of the 11th Edition of the report ‘Domestic Replacement Door and Window Market Report – UK 2012-2016 Analysis’ – incorporating original input and primary research. First published in 1990, it represents an up-to-date and informed report on the Home Improvement market, with particular emphasis on the double-glazing sector and forecasts up to 2016.
Sectors covered in detail include:
WINDOWS
RESIDENTIAL DOORS
PATIO DOORS
Market saturation is a key issue for the replacement sector and there are many significant implications for the industry in the medium term in terms of material usage, end use markets, changing supply and distribution structures etc, which are reviewed in the report. While 2011-12 has been a difficult period, the housing market and economy will start to improve and provide some opportunities for recovery in the medium term.
Of particular interest:
Market activity levels in 2011-2012
Material usage trends in all product sectors – including growth of composite doors.
Review of changes in the distribution structure.
Market trends in the private and public sectors –.
Forecasts for 2012 and up to 2016 – review of key market drivers, impact of Green Deal etc.
Some of the companies featured include:
Anglian Windows, Arran Isle, Benlowe Group, Birtley Building Products, Blyweert, Beaufort Aluminium, Boise Building Products, C R Smith, Cambrian Windows, Clearwood Joinery, Deceuninck, Distinction Doors, Door Stop International, Duraflex, Epwin Holdings, Eurocell Profiles, Everest, Evergreen Door, GBW Panels, Griffin Windows, Hallmark Panels, Homesafe-Lindman, Howarth Timber, Howdens Joinery, Hurst Plastics, IG Doors, Jeld-Wen UK, John Porter Doors, Kawneer UK, LB Plastics, Magnet, Manse Masterdor, Mumford and Wood, New World Developments, Permadoor, Premdor Crosby, Premier Manufacturing Ltd, Profine UK, Rehau, Rockdoor, Safestyle, SAPA Building Systems, Securidor, Senior Architectural Systems, Smart Systems, Synseal, Timberwindows.com, Veka, Vista Panels, Weatherseal, WHS Halo.
Key areas covered in the report include:
THE MARKET
Market size by Volume and Value – recent developments to 2011 and forecasts of future trends within each product group up to 2016.
Review of market in 2010-12 – market performance and potential in short/medium term.
Share and analysis of market by product – windows, doors and patio doors.
Share and analysis of market by frame material – PVC-u, timber, aluminium, composites and steel.
Share and analysis of market by sector – direct sell, indirect private and public sector.
Developments in the private and public sectors - role of Housing Associations, List of Top Housing Associations by dwelling stock, Decent Homes Initiative.
Household penetration levels – 1981-2011 and future growth. Prospects for further penetration – growth of ‘second’ replacement market.
Forecasts from 2012 - 2016 – short /medium term issues in 2012-13 – market saturation, pricing, industry restructuring, sustainability issues, impact of Green Deal etc.
PRODUCTS
Market size by Volume and Value for each product sector – recent developments to 2011 and forecasts of future trends from 2012-16.
Analysis of market trends for each product, including use of aluminum, PVC-u, composite and timber by product.
Product trends, forecasts of future developments up to 2016 – opportunities/threats, growth of composites etc.
Distribution by sector – Social Housing, Private direct sell and Builders sector – for each product.
Importance of frame materials within market sectors – Local Authorities, Direct Sell, Housing Associations, Conservatory market etc.
Sustainability issues – impact on market, legislation, impact of Green Deal.
SUPPLY & DISTRIBUTION
Analysis of distribution structure for PVC-u, Aluminium, Timber.
Role of Extruders, Systems Companies, Fabricators, Merchants, Builders, Local Authorities, DIY Outlets etc – reasons for their market positions, market changes, acquisitions etc.
Review of changes in market structure over the last 2-3 years – recent mergers, acquisitions.
Analysis of leading suppliers within each material group –including market share analysis, strengths and weaknesses, Industry rationalisation in the future.
Review of composite door supply structure.
Retail distribution – review of suppliers in the direct sell and builders sectors of the market, market shares, strengths and weaknesses, leading companies.
KEY INFLUENCES / FUTURE PROSPECTS
Review of standards and legislation – potential impact of Green Deal.
Review of current and future performance of the housing market.
Developments within major product groups – market saturation levels, new areas of growth, niche sectors. Material and distribution trends.
Economic influences and growth prospects up to 2016.
Additional Information
The UK market for replacement domestic doors and windows is large, but mature and volumes have been in steady underlying decline, though the economic downturn since 2008 has exacerbated difficulties in this market. This declining, mature market was struggling before the financial crisis and, in 2012, the sector continues to struggle with the same factors still strongly affecting market performance. In 2012, the market can be described as subdued in terms of sales, with low consumer confidence, a poor housing market and the constriction of credit key factors. Defining characteristics in the current market are: maturity, fragmentation, competition, building legislation, ‘green’ building issues, cost-management and diversification.
Companies are continuing to focus on weathering the recession and, looking beyond that, diversification, cost-management, and rapidly growing ‘green’ issues are key themes. In the last 5-6 years, there has been significant acquisition activity in the door and window replacement industry and further consolidation is inevitable both at systems and at fabricator/installer levels. Many companies are focusing on sustainability and recycling as these issues gain ever more importance in this market.
Windows are the dominant sector, accounting for an estimated 53% of the replacement market by value. Residential doors account for an estimated share of 38%, whilst the patio door sector has a minor share at around 9%.
The private ‘direct sell' or retail home improvement market remains the dominant sector representing around half of the market. The public sector represents about 28% of the market by value, though this is set to fall in coming years are spending cuts are implemented, while the indirect private replacement sector represents around a quarter of the market.
The dominant position of PVC-u, especially in the windows and patio door sector over the past few decades is undeniable, with the PVC-u dominated direct sell route to market particularly strong in these product sectors. Aluminium and timber are also important frame materials for doors and windows, while composite doors continue to represent an area of significant interest.
The PVC-U sector in 2011 saw a major change in this market with the acquisition of Bowater Building Products by Veka, who are one of the top five companies in the UK systems market. The merger, in early 2012, of Epwin Group with Latium Building Products represents an even more significant change to the market, and with this merge, a clear market leader – Epwin Holdings - has emerged. The structure of the industry has always been volatile with a high turnover of retail companies. There are likely to be further examples of acquisition, mergers or companies exiting the market altogether.
Our forecasts for the development of the door and window replacement market are for only modest growth in value for this market for the next few years reflecting the fact that this mature market has very little scope for major volume growth –even when the economy recovers. For 2014 and beyond, our forecasts indicate slightly improved growth in market value based on economic improvement, increased consumer confidence and an improvement in the housing market.
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION
2. SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
2.1 SUMMARY
2.2 FUTURE PROSPECTS
3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
3.1 GDP
3.2 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES
3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT
3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
3.5 HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION
3.6 STERLING
3.7 POPULATION PROFILE
3.8 CONCLUSIONS
4. THE MARKET
4.1 MARKET DEFINITION
4.2 MARKET SIZE
4.2.1 Market Background
4.2.2 Current Situation
4.2.3 Future Prospects
4.3 PRODUCT MIX
4.4 MARKET SECTORS
4.5 HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION LEVELS
4.6 KEY INFLUENCES
4.6.1 Standards & Legislation
4.6.2 Environmental
4.6.3 Overall Construction Market
4.6.4 Overall Housebuilding Market
4.6.5 UK Social Housing Market
4.7 THE CONSERVATORY MARKET
5. MATERIALS
5.1 OVERVIEW
5.2 MATERIALS - CURRENT TRENDS IN BRIEF
5.3 DEVELOPMENT OF KEY MATERIALS
5.3.1 PVCu
5.3.2 Aluminium
5.3.3 Timber
5.3.4 Composite Doors
5.3.5 Other materials
6. PRODUCTS
6.1 WINDOWS
6.1.1 Market Size & Volume
6.1.2 Distribution by Sector
6.2 PATIO DOORS
6.2.1 Market Size & Volume
6.3 RESIDENTIAL DOORS
6.3.1 Market Size & Volume
7 SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
7.1 OVERVIEW OF DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE
7.2 DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE BY FRAME MATERIAL
7.2.1 PVC-u
7.2.2 Aluminium
7.2.3 Timber
7.2.4 Composite Doors
7.3 RETAIL DISTRIBUTION
7.3.1 Retail Glazing Companies
7.3.2 Builders Merchants
7.3.3 DIY Outlets
7.3.4 Specialist Suppliers to DIY/Builders Merchants
List of Tables and Charts
TABLE 1: UK DOMESTIC REPLACEMENT DOOR & WINDOW MARKET (£M RSP) 2006-2016
CHART 2: INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 1992-2016
CHART 3: PDI & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 1992-2016
TABLE 4: EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2008-2014 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES
CHART 5: AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RESIDENT UK POPULATION MID-2010 (‘000)
TABLE 6: UK DOMESTIC REPLACEMENT DOOR & WINDOW MARKET (£M RSP) 2006-2016
CHART 7: UK DOMESTIC REPLACEMENT DOOR & WINDOW MARKET (£M RSP) 2010-2016
CHART 8: MARKET VALUE BY PRODUCT - WINDOWS, PATIO DOORS & RESIDENTIAL DOORS - % MIX 2011
CHART 9: UK DOMESTIC REPLACEMENT WINDOWS AND DOORS SHARE BY MARKET SECTOR 2011
CHART 10: HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION LEVEL OF ANY TYPE OF DOUBLE-GLAZING 1985 - 2011
TABLE 11: CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT GREAT BRITAIN 2006 TO 2011 – BY VALUE (£ BILLION AT CURRENT PRICES)
CHART 12: HOUSING CONSTRUCTION STARTS & COMPLETIONS AND FORECASTS 2006 TO 2016 BY VOLUME
CHART 13: HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS - % MIX BY HOUSES / FLATS ENGLAND 2001-2011
TABLE 14: ENGLAND DWELLING STOCK BY TENURE (‘000S) 2007-2011
CHART 15: HOUSING STOCK BY COUNTRY AND TENURE 2010-11 (%)
TABLE 16: TOP 30 HA GROUPS IN ENGLAND BY TOTAL STOCK OWNED (2011) UNITS MANAGED / MARKET SHARE
TABLE 17: LEADING HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN SCOTLAND (2,000+ DWELLINGS) 2011 – UNITS MANAGED/MARKET SHARE
TABLE 18: MAJOR HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN WALES – 2011 UNITS MANAGED / MARKET SHARES
TABLE 19: MAJOR HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN NORTHERN IRELAND 2011 UNITS MANAGED/MARKET SHARES
CHART 21: MOVING ANNUAL TOTAL SECURED GROSS LENDING TO INDIVIDUALS AND HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS 2006-12 £MILLION
TABLE 22: DOMESTIC CONSERVATORY MARKET 2007 -2016 BY VOLUME
CHART 23: MIX OF WINDOWS BY FRAME MATERIAL (TIMBER, ALUMINIUM, PVCU) – DEVELOPMENT OVER TIME – BY VALUE
CHART 24: MIX OF PATIO DOORS BY FRAME MATERIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER TIME - BY VALUE
CHART 25: MIX OF RESIDENTIAL DOORS BY FRAME MATERIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER TIME - BY VALUE
TABLE 26: UK HOME IMPROVEMENT MARKET FOR WINDOWS 2006-2016 BY VOLUME
CHART 27: VALUE OF WINDOWS BY SECTOR (DIRECT SELL, LA/HA, INDIRECT PRIVATE) - 2011
TABLE 28: UK HOME IMPROVEMENT MARKET FOR PATIO DOORS 2006 -2016 BY VOLUME
TABLE 29: UK HOME IMPROVEMENT MARKET FOR RESIDENTIAL DOORS 2006-2016 BY VOLUME
CHART 30: DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE - PVC-U DOORS AND WINDOWS
TABLE 31: PVC-U SYSTEMS MARKET SUPPLIER SHARES – 2011/12
CHART 32: DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE - ALUMINIUM WINDOWS AND DOORS
CHART 33: DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE - TIMBER WINDOWS AND DOORS
CHART 34: DISTRIBUTION OF TIMBER DOORS & WINDOWS - BY VOLUME 2009
TABLE 35: RETAIL MARKET SHARE - BY VALUE 2011
CHART 36: MERCHANTS MARKET SHARES 2011
CHART 37: NATIONAL MERCHANTS MARKET SHARE COMPARISON 2001 AND 2011
CHART 38: DIY MULTIPLES MARKET SHARE 2011
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